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May 15th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 15, 2020

2:55 pm EST (Updated 4:00 pm EST):   The debate here is where does the wave minute (1) of minor 5 of major [1]-P1-C3 end.

The primary (green) count is that wave iii-(1) is on going and a strong close today that should push the SP500 price towards the iii=1.62*i target of 2877.   And the minute (1) wave should reach the 2900 to 2910 area early next week, before the minute (2) wave pull-back.

There is also alternate (blue) count that has minute (1) complete today at 2862, which could produce a drop for minute (2) to the 50%/62% Fibs at 2815 to 2803 going into the weekend.

The minor 5 targets are at M5=0.62*M1 = 3042 (blue) to M5=0.78*M1 at 3113 (green).

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart (2:50 pm EST):

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 TEch

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

48 Responses to “May 15th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Nice surge into the close to 2864, putting the primary (green) target of 2877 or iii-(1) into play for a Monday.

    All time frame charts updated.

    Enjoy your weekend !

  2. pugsma said

    Great weather here in Chicagoland to start the weekend. 😎

    • MS53 said

      Great name for a Chicago pooch 👍

      • pugsma said

        Thanks Mike. Risky Business is one of my all-time favorite movies of my coming of age years of 1980 (freshman in high) to 1984 (freshman in college).

        When we were selecting potential dog names I came up with Risky. I looked it up and I could not find Risky anywhere. So I thought, thanks unique and it fits.

  3. pugsma said

    Look 👀 who just followed me on Twitter.

    Could this realty be the infamous Piotr from the years 2009-2010 time frame?

  4. pugsma said

    Every time there’s recession in the USA most of what we hear from the financial talking heads and most bearish investors is we are headed for a U-shaped or God forbid an L-Shaped recovery.

    History says it’s been 10 for 10 on a V-shaped economic recovery from a severe economic recession.

  5. Bill S. said

    Interesting set-up I noticed in my weekend studies:

    SPX has now gone 38 trading days without an oversold reading (50%) after the first intermediate-term high (equivalent to a Major 1 high), while 4 of them saw only shallow retracements (between .236 and .382). The interesting this is that of the 8 deep retracement instances, 6 of 8 (75%) either topped prior to day 38 or within 1-2 trading days. While, for the shallow retracement instances 3 of 4 (75%) did not see their intermediate-term tops for at least 3 weeks (3-8 week range to IT top).

    • Bill S. said

      For some reason most of the text got chopped off of this post (?) … What’s missing is 38 TD without oversold RSI 5 (less than 30) while under 200 day MA. 12 previous instances in last 80 years. 75% marked the start of new cycle bull markets, and 100% have since since 1982. 8 deep retracements and 4 shallow (the rest is covered above).

  6. pugsma said

    Per a custom chart request, I just posted the initial Elliott Wave Analysis on XLE (Energy ETF) across the 60-min, daily and weekly time frames.

    The charts are available in the 2020 Custom Chart Archive: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2020/

  7. pugsma said

    This looks bullish …

  8. doubleug said

    Was Powell’s 60 Minutes interview last night enough to unleash the super secret bullish count? I’m obviously super eager to see it!

    • pugsma said

      It’s pretty easy to guess it, right?

      • doubleug said

        Major 2 already in place?

        • doubleug said

          The IWM chart would definitely favor this, I think.

        • pugsma said

          Yes at the 2767 low.

          We had a 25% retrace from 2955 to 2767 after a flat looking (consolidation) wave, which is precisely what happened in May-June 2009 with the major [2]-P1-C1 wave.

          • pugsma said

            Remember here in the comments and in this tweet from 4 days ago I mentioned how the 2767 level for minor 4 of major [1] was a potential buying opportunity that should be as good or better than the yet to come major [2] wave.

          • doubleug said

            Would this do anything to change your short term count for today?

          • pugsma said

            Not at all. my primary (green) count for minor 4 of major [1] at 2767 looks very good.

            Remember with the SP500 close at 2820 some of the flack I was taking for combining the two wave counts into a minor 4 low with a 2789 target (we hit 2767) and a minor 5 target of 3042 to 3113.

          • doubleug said

            I absolutely do. In the midst of this volatility and bearish sentiment, I personally think that call was one of the best and boldest you’ve made.

          • pugsma said

            Thanks Doubleug.

            I try very hard to adapt my analysis very quickly to changes in price and wave structure so that subscribers can benefit the most in there trading and investing.

          • Bill S. said

            +1

  9. pugsma said

    We are looking at 60 point gap up open based on SPY at 8:00 am EST.
    This could be one of those weekly gap ups that the market NEVER looks back from.
    => Unlimited US Federal Reserve Quantitive Easing (QE) to get the economy past this “artificial, forced shut-down”
    => COVID-19 vaccine (Moderna) that is working to produced anti-bodies

    • pugsma said

      It’s approaching a 70 point gap up in SP500 now.

      We need one of our market historians to find the largest weekly gap up open and what came next?

      • Bill S. said

        Looks like about 2.5% gap up right now.

        Monday gaps up > 2.5%:
        12/11/00
        9/24/01
        9/8/08
        10/13/08
        11/24/08
        12/8/08
        3/23/09
        5/10/10
        11/28/11
        4/6/20

        haven’t had time to look at them all yet to see if there’s any consistent pattern.

    • hh101063 said

      fantastic – so assuming the cash market will open around 2910-2920, do you then see this as wave iii-(1) still on going or is it more likely the end of the whole minute (1) meaning that we are due to the minute (2) wave pull-back to the 2838 level? Thanks

      • pugsma said

        Looks like iii-(3) of minor 5, with Friday’s low at 2817 was (2). Should Grind towards minimum 3042 target for minor 5 and maybe as high as 3113.

  10. R Swaim said

    Have to join the clapping audience here, in that your outlook for a melt-up to more than 3000 was surprising and unique when you made it. Also want to compliment you on being able to not get stuck in a count and for staying flexible.

  11. R Swaim said

    And LOVE the name Risky Biz!

  12. pugsma said

    Looking at the 5-min chart, you can clear see a small Inverse and Head and shoulders with sloping neckline from 2874 to 2853 (average = 2864) and head at 2767 that should target 2864 + (2864 – 2767) = 2961

  13. R Swaim said

    In other things to watch, BOIL took off this morning.

  14. rat8nine said

    spx 15 as of now – something like this?

  15. Bill S. said

    Quick update on the Monday gap stat…

    We ended up gapping ~ 2.3% so I loosened up parameters for Monday gap higher by >= 2%. I also added the specification that the intraday high is a 20 day high (which was met today).

    Only 2 historical instances show up:

    4/7/03 and 3/23/09

    What’s fascinating is that those were both occurred in Major 1 wave of new cyclical bull markets. AND (this is the most important part) the 3-day swing low made prior to the Monday gap in both cases was never seen again in both cases, meaning it was the last best buying opportunity of those new bull markets. In this case that would correspond to last week’s low of 2767 never being seen again!

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