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May 13th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 13, 2020

1:50 pm EST:  The SP-500 opened gap down from 2870 to 2865, dropped quickly to 2839, bounced to 2874 and dropped again to 2799.

The primary (green) count is that minor 4 of major [1] is playing out as a Zig-Zag (to alternate with the minor 2 expanded flat) with a target at 2789, where (c)=(a).   Thus far, 2799 has been hit.  That could be it for minor 4 or there could be one more drop to 2789 later today.  The primary (green) wave count remains valid for minor 4 above the minor 1 high at 2637.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

26 Responses to “May 13th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Leslie Smith said

    Steve, these intraday updates are appreciated!

  2. rat8nine said

    spx 15 as of now:

  3. I am unfortunately re-writing my opex post and doing a lot more research to see if I can come up with some useful perspective, as the move yesterday and today was not high on my list of scenarios for the week.

    One piece of data that might be useful for everyone:

    Opex Tuesday Highs for the week are the rarest of the 5 possible days for a high for the week. Given the damage that occurred on Tuesday and Wednesday, it is likely that the high day for this May 2020 opex week was on Tuesday.
    • There is a 60% chance that the low for the week will be on Friday.
    • There is a 35% chance that the low for the week will be on Thursday
    • Just 5% of the weeks with a Tuesday high have had a Monday or a Wednesday low.

    More tomorrow,

    -D

  4. rat8nine said

    iwm spy qqq 5 at the low just now – spy and qqq made a lower low, iwm did not for the first time in this move.

  5. davidelsons said

    The Primary count replaced the alternate count today?

  6. traderwill33 said

    Where did the below scenario from a day or two ago go? Was it invalidated? Is 2664 off the table for some reason?

    The primary (green/white) count is that major [1]-P1-C3 topped at 2955. The minor A of major [2] wave was a rapid two-day 5-wave drop to 2798. Minor B looks to still be unfolding as slow corrective 3-wave (a)-(b)-(c), Zig-Zag. Minute (a) of minor B hit 2898 and minute (b) dropped to a 50% Fib at 2848. Wave minute (c) is underway towards a target at (c)=(a) = 2948. Minor B completed today at 2846. The minor C should be a 5-wave drop towards the 38% Fib target for major [2] is at 2664. A break below 2798 will confirm the primary (green) count, which remains valid below the 2955 recovery high.

    • pugsma said

      See my comment above. Today’s wave count is a combination of the yesterday’s two wave counts. It will take a drop below 2637 (minor 1 of major [1] high) for the new primary wave count calling this drop a minor 4 of major [1] to be replaced by a major [2] wave label.

  7. pugsma said

    Thus far Major [1]-P1-C3 in year 2020 is playing out almost identically to Major [1]-P1-C1 in year 2009.

    Notice that in year 2009 the minor 4 of major [1] wave low was nearly the same as the major [2] low, only a 26% retrace of major [1].

    Thus this drop today could be the best buying opportunity of the Primary 1 (P1) wave headed towards 4000 on the SP500.

  8. slater9 said

    Steve rermains the best Elliot i have seen ….. simply looks at WHAT IS…. and adjusts…. kudos

  9. pugsma said

    The NYMO closed oversold below -40 and below its Bollinger Band setting up the trigger for a potential big move up in the SP500.

  10. airran23 said

    Hi Steve,

    Does the NYMO have to close inside the BB for it to trigger a buy or closing outside is sufficient for the trigger? Thanks for the constant updates.

  11. Bill S. said

    Interesting combination met today:

    1) SPX down > 1.5% for 2nd straight day (sharp drop)
    2) trailing 5 day ROC down < 1% (following a strong short-term rally)
    3) At least one month since oversold RSI 5 reading <=30 (in the midst of a persistent intermediate-term rally)

    Previous dates in the last 60 years that match:

    12/18/15
    11/1/11
    4/7/09

    Performance following prior dates was 100% winners over the following 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 trading days later. Over the next 5 trading days average draw-up was a robust +4.7%, while the average draw-down was a minuscule -0.13%. Two of the 3 dates gapped up and never traded below the signal dates close over the next 5 trading days.

    • Bill S. said

      One minor correction…

      I just noticed that 5/1/20 also met this criteria. It’s interesting as an “out of sample” test as it followed the historical examples almost precisely, closing higher than the signal date on each of the following 1-5 trading days, and seeing a 3.6% max draw-up over that span versus a -1.3% max drawdown.

  12. Bill S. said

    Another notable thing about today’s close is that 10-day EMA of NYSE advancing issues % reached the 40% oversold level which is the 1st step in setting up for a potential Zweig Breadth Thrust signal. Of course now bulls would now have to follow through with a strong advance on good breadth to get to 61.5% within 10 trading days to trigger the ZBT.

    • pugsma said

      Ironically it just went for 0.64 to 0.40 in 10 days. A negative Zweig breadth trust? Doesn’t exist, at least I’ve never heard of it.

      Picture:

  13. traderwill33 said

    None of this makes sense to me… Sounds like everyone is overly bullish and not giving any respect to potential continued downside… I guess we’ll know soon enough

  14. droc14 said

    updated survey…Steve if you want to post a better chart please do:

    Sentiment Survey Past Results
    Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
    May 14: 23.31% 26.07% 50.61%
    May 7: 23.67% 23.67% 52.66%
    April 30: 30.60% 25.37% 44.03%
    April 23: 24.86% 25.14% 50.00%
    April 16: 34.86% 22.39% 42.75%
    April 9: 36.60% 18.73% 44.67%
    April 2: 34.24% 16.03% 49.73%
    March 26: 32.90% 15.03% 52.07%
    March 19: 34.35% 14.50% 51.15%
    March 12: 29.74% 18.95% 51.31%
    March 5: 38.74% 21.62% 39.64%
    February 27: 30.43% 30.43% 39.13%
    February 20: 40.56% 30.77% 28.67%
    February 13: 41.33% 32.27% 26.40%
    February 6: 33.87% 30.91% 35.22%
    January 30: 31.98% 31.17% 36.86%
    January 23: 45.60% 29.63% 24.77%
    January 16: 41.83% 30.66% 27.51%
    January 9: 33.07% 37.04% 29.89%
    January 2: 37.22% 40.91% 21.88%
    December 26: 41.89% 36.58% 21.53%
    December 19: 44.09% 35.43% 20.47%

  15. kazoom1618 said

    SPX 10min:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=10&yr=0&mn=0&dy=20&id=p86967427033&a=670251131&r=1589465556610&cmd=print

    reasons to turn up from here – 2 equal legs down (gray arrows), 38% retrace, mid-gap fill Apr 22/23

    • rat8nine said

      +1 – thank you for that chart Kazoom1618….. I see a potentially very bullish area and pattern here at or near today’s low….spx 15, two charts, and fibs:

  16. lauter1 said

    Transport ($DJT) perfect c=a, and strong bounce. And 50% retrace on the daily chart.

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