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May 11th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on May 11, 2020

4:25 pm EST:   The SP-500 gapped down from 2930 to 2916, dropped to a low of 2903, rebounded all day to hit a high of 2944 and closed flat at 2930.

The primary (green/white) count is that major [1]-P1-C3 topped at 2955.  The minor A of major [2] wave was a rapid two-day 5-wave drop to 2798.  Minor B looks to still be unfolding as slow corrective 3-wave (a)-(b)-(c), Zig-Zag.  Minute (a) of minor B hit 2898 and minute (b) dropped to a 50% Fib at 2848.  Wave minute (c) is underway towards a target at (c)=(a) = 2948.   Once minor B completes, minor C should be a 5-wave drop towards the 38% Fib target for major [2] is at 2664.  A break below 2798 will confirm the primary (green) count, which remains valid below the 2955 recovery high.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 4 of major [1]-P1-C3 completed at 2798.  Minor 5 of major [1] is underway as a 5-wave move that will extend beyond 2954 to at least the 3037 target, where minor 5 = 0.62*minor 1.  Wave minute (1) of minor 5 completed at 2898.  The minute (2) dropped to the typical 50% at 2848.  The minute (3) wave is underway that should target (3)=1.62(1) target at 3010.  The alternate (blue) count remains valid above the minor 4 low at 2798.

Note:  It’s pretty simple now, a break below 2798 confirms the primary (green) and above 2955 confirms the alternate (blue).

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

9 Responses to “May 11th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Note the SP500 needs a BIG 50 point up day tomorrow to bust out of the -DIV divergence on the MACD forming across all time frames from 5-min to 15-min to 60-min.

    Per the alternate (blue) the wave iii=2.62*i target is near 3000 within the minor (3) = 1.62(1) target of 3010.

    Get busy livin’ or get busy dyin’ !

  2. R Swaim said

    Today’s 2944.25 was less than 2% (3.75 pts) of 2948, so may’ve been close enough to end the green. Right?

  3. Bill S. said

    Very unusual day today. SPX finishes up while both advancing volume and advancing issues 3% only one other day in the last 60 years matches these stats. That date was 3/5/75. Over the next month SPX rose 3.8% followed by an 8.5% decline. For today’s SPX that would be a rise to 3040 followed by a drop to 2780, almost exact match to the alternate count.

  4. pugsma said

    For those of you new here, our friend Denali is one of the most accurate and thorough market historians I’ve read in the past decade. This is why he’s a ongoing valued guest here. I have a page dedicated to his work called “Denali’s Turning Points” Link:

    Denali uses a “lot” of words to describe market historical perspectives that could be valid to current conditions. However, I’ve never seen him publish a “chart”. So I thought today I put up a couple charts to go with his words from yesterday

    • pugsma said

      For me as an Elliot Wave Technician, I’m more focused on price and wave structure.

      The time period in the market i look to as similar to now is March to July year 2009. That was the Super Cycle IV bottom at 667 and the start of Primary 1 (P1) of Cycle 1 (C1) is SC-V.

      Since this wave up from 2192 in March 2020 is major [1] of P1-C3 it should look similar to major [1] of P1-C1 in year 2009. The major [1] wave in year 2009 did not top until mid-June above the 200-day SMA. Then major [2] dropped into mid-July.

      • Thanks for providing the charts.

        I definitely do see this March 2009 analog as a distinct possibility. Interestingly, the March 2003 bottom and rally also had a June high and a fairly slight pullback in to early July as well.

        More when I provide my opex commentary later in the week.

        Have a good evening,

        -D

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