April 23rd, 2020: GOLD Historical View and Possible Alternate Path
Posted by pugsma on April 23, 2020
For several years now, I’ve been looking for Gold (GLD) to top out in this $1600 to $1700 area (GLD $160 to $170) and head to new lows below $1000 (GLD below $100).
However, now that Gold prices are here at $1750, it looks like the upward momentum (see MACD on GLD Monthly charrt) is far too strong to reverse. In fact I can see a pattern on both the historical Gold chart and the monthly GLD chart that takes Gold above $2000 (GLD above $200).
This makes some sense with all the unexpected US Federal Reverse stimulus ($6 to $10 Trillion) coming in to the markets over the next year or two.
Gold Historical Chart:
GLD Monthly Chart:
doubleug said
Excellent, thank you Steve! This makes much more sense in a macro-context.
doubleug said
Curious how you will count this new pattern. Would you have Cycle 4 ending at 100.23 and Primary 1 of Cycle 5 at 131.25?
pugsma said
Gold, like most commodities, don’t lend themselves easily to classic impulse and corrective wave counts. Commodities tend produce a lot of 3 wave moves.
This is why I gave up charting GLD at the smaller time frames a several years ago
pugsma said
And yes that would be the GLD alt (blue) count headed above 200