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April 1st, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 1, 2020

2:50 pm EST:  The SP-500 gapped down from 2584 and hit 2467.

When a new bull cycle dree wave begins, it’s easy to start counting the wave too rapidly particularly with respect to time (i.e. major degree waves instead of minor waves).   We need realize that this Cycle 3 (C3) wave of Super Cycle V (SCV), will last longer in time than the Cycle 1 (C1) wave that lasted from March 2009 to September 2018 (roughly 9 years).  A rough assumption is that the C3 wave time will be a 1.62 Fibonacci extension of C1 wave time, which is roughly 15 years from year 2020.  Thus the C3 wave should last until roughly year 2035.  To that end, I have downgrade the waves up form the 2192 low to minor degree from major degree.

The primary (green/white) count is that minor 1 of major [1]-1-C3-SCV completed at 2637.   The minor 2 wave looks to be playing out as a flat wave.  Minute (a) of minor 2 was the drop from 2637 to 2520.  The minute (b) wave was move up from 2520 to 2641.  The minute (c) wave has dropped to 2467 thus far.   The (c)=1.62(a) target is 2451 and the (c)=2.00(a) target is 2407.  There are also minor 2 Fib targets of 38%//50% at 2470/2415.  I’m looking for the major [1] wave up from 2192 to an initial target of 2856 to play out a possible leading diagonal.   Thus, once minor 2 completes, the initial target for minor 3 is at 2732, where minor 3 = 0.62*minor 1.   A 38% Fib retrace for minor 4 is at 2626 overlapping minor 1 at 2637.  And finally minor 5 will likely target the 2856 area.   A leading diagonal will typically retrace to 78% Fib, which at 2338 for the major [2] wave.  Thus, I’m expecting a deep major [2] wave retrace to test the 2192 low later in May or early June.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


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