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April 1st, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 1, 2020

2:50 pm EST:  The SP-500 gapped down from 2584 and hit 2467.

When a new bull cycle dree wave begins, it’s easy to start counting the wave too rapidly particularly with respect to time (i.e. major degree waves instead of minor waves).   We need realize that this Cycle 3 (C3) wave of Super Cycle V (SCV), will last longer in time than the Cycle 1 (C1) wave that lasted from March 2009 to September 2018 (roughly 9 years).  A rough assumption is that the C3 wave time will be a 1.62 Fibonacci extension of C1 wave time, which is roughly 15 years from year 2020.  Thus the C3 wave should last until roughly year 2035.  To that end, I have downgrade the waves up form the 2192 low to minor degree from major degree.

The primary (green/white) count is that minor 1 of major [1]-1-C3-SCV completed at 2637.   The minor 2 wave looks to be playing out as a flat wave.  Minute (a) of minor 2 was the drop from 2637 to 2520.  The minute (b) wave was move up from 2520 to 2641.  The minute (c) wave has dropped to 2467 thus far.   The (c)=1.62(a) target is 2451 and the (c)=2.00(a) target is 2407.  There are also minor 2 Fib targets of 38%//50% at 2470/2415.  I’m looking for the major [1] wave up from 2192 to an initial target of 2856 to play out a possible leading diagonal.   Thus, once minor 2 completes, the initial target for minor 3 is at 2732, where minor 3 = 0.62*minor 1.   A 38% Fib retrace for minor 4 is at 2626 overlapping minor 1 at 2637.  And finally minor 5 will likely target the 2856 area.   A leading diagonal will typically retrace to 78% Fib, which at 2338 for the major [2] wave.  Thus, I’m expecting a deep major [2] wave retrace to test the 2192 low later in May or early June.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


22 Responses to “April 1st, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Just case anyone doubts my conservative C3 price target of 5876 (C3=1.62*C1) within 15 years (year 2035).

    Take a look at this piece of research showing how the 2009 generation low and subsequent bull run resembles the bull runs from the 1942 and 1974 generational lows.

    => The 1942 model predicts the SP500 to hit 10,000 by year 2035

    => The 1974 model predicts the SP500 to 13,000 by year 2035

    If I upgrade my model to show C3 = 2.62*C1 then I get 8150 (a typical reasonable Wave 3 Fibonacci Extension)

    If I upgrade my model to show C3 = 3.21*C1 then I get 11,765 (a very bullish Wave 3 Fibonacci Extension)

    • pugsma said

      It’s interesting to see that the bull run off the 2009 generation low, got a “hot” after year 2011 and the recent C2 wave simply corrected back to trend basis the year 1942 and 1974 bull runs.

    • lauter1 said

      Thanks, great chart. This also fits well with a current possible generational low in commodities (oil, etc.) and metals/materials.

  2. pugsma said

    This a very interesting stat:

    When Q1 is down more that -10%, the SP500 rallies on average 39% !

    Q1 ended at 2584. A 39% gain is 1007 points to 3592 !! My P1-C3 Target is 3500 in early 2021. 🙂

  3. doubleug said

    Could you remind me of the leading diagonal requirements again? Is it wave 5 < 3 < 1?

  4. Good morning. I am new here, so just trying to get the really big picture. Pardon my basic question: Is there a link anywhere to the Grand Super Cycle Count so that I can look at a 100+ chart. I am getting hung up on trying to understand the SCIV count in 2009. Thank you.

  5. Thanks. Do you have anything prior to 1997?

    • pugsma said

      No. But the 1929 top was the end of Super Cycle I. The Great Depression bottom was Super Cycle II low. And the year 2000 top was Super Cycle III end.

  6. Just found this. Does this comport with your SC count?

  7. hh101063 said

    Good morning – is it possible that the drop yesterday to 2449 was only minute a) of minor-1 and what we see now is minute b) which will be followed with a minute c) down yet to come and possibly go lower than 2407?

  8. hh101063 said

    Sorry I meant minor 2 – so could the drop to 2449 have been only minute a) of minor 2 meaning the increase we see now is minute b) of minor 2 with minute c) of minor 2 yet to come going to 2407 or lower?

  9. R Swaim said

    Right now it could go either way. The lower direction is in Pug’s first couple of charts and the Fibs in mine show why. Note the similar set-ups at the two vertical red lines.

  10. pugsma said

    FYI. On the 15-min chart there is potential bullish Cup and Handle Pattern.

    Rim of the Cup at 2641.

    Handel is the drop to 2447.

    C&H Pattern Target is 2637 + (2641-2447) = 2835. Right at my major [1] Leading Diagonal Target of 2856.

  11. droc14 said

    This afternoon decline to 2483 has retraced nearly 62% from 2447 to 2533. 62% retrace is ~2480 while 50% was ~2490

    • hh101063 said

      and later it declined to 2468 i.e. approx 78% of the 2447-to-2533 move and then rose – so guess this indicates that minor-3 is likely on the way?

  12. pugsma said

    Remember this week has a 100% probability (7 of 7 cases since year 1993) of closing positive (that is above 2541) after last weeks bullish engulfing candle from a multi-week major decline.

    • pugsma said

      And what I find even more interesting from the weekly bullish engulfing chart, is that in all 7 cases the SP500 rallied for at least 5 weeks (this being the 2nd) and then only pulled back slightly before rallying much more.

      This agrees with my primary (green) wave count major [1] reaching at least 2856 by the end of April, 5 weeks from the March 23 low at 2192, a major [2] wave pull-back and rallying much more in a major [3] wave.

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