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March 26th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 26, 2020

7:25 pm EST:   The SP500 gaped up from 2475 to hit 2602, retreated to 2557 and rallied to close at 2630.

The primary (green) count is that major [1] of P1-C3 is underway of the C2 low at 2192.  The move up to 2301 was minor 1 of major [1]-P1-C3.  The drop back to 2199 was minor 2 of major [1].   The move up to 2571 was the minor 3 wave.  The drop to 2465 was the minor 4 wave.  The final minor 5 should be  near and end at minor 5=1.62*minor 1 target at 2642 to complete major [1].  Once major [1] completes, the major [2] wave should retrace to the 50%/62% Fib area of 2417/2363.    Note, the primary (green) wave count remains valid above the 2192 low.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 3 of major [1]-P1-C2 is completing here near the minor 3 =4.23*minor 1 target of 2660.  There should be minor 4 wave pull-back to the  23% Fib at 2554, before one more push up to 2714, where minor 5 =1.62*minor1.  There is also a bullish inverse head and shoulders (IHS) pattern on the 15-min chart, with head at 2192, neckline at 2467 and a target of 2742 to complete major [1].  Once major [1] completes, the major [2] wave should retrace to the 50%/62% Fib area of 2467/2401.  Note, the alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the 2192 low.

Tonight we need to discuss one of the most important long-term bull market initiation indicators, the ZBT (Zweig Breadth Trust).   ZBT Definition:  The indicator signals the start of a potential new bull market when it moves from a level of below 40% (indicating an oversold market) to a level above 61.5% within any 10-day period. This is a rarely occurring sentiment, which carries tremendous import with market watchers.  If we look at the ZBT Chart Close-up, linked at the left-hand side of this blog under Technical Analysis, we can see that in just 3 days this week (Tuesday to Thursday) the ZBT has moved from below 0.40 on Monday to 0.58 at the close Thursday.  So the ZTB is very close to triggering and has until Monday, April 6th to close above 0.615.

ZTB Close -Up Chart (3-26-20):

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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