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March 4th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 4, 2020

5:05 pm EST:  The SP-500 price opened gap up to hit 3073, dropped to 3034 and then rally to close at 3130.

The bullish primary (green) wave count is major [1]-P3-C3 is underway toward the 3394 area.  Within major [1], minor 1 hit 3137 and now minor 2 retraced the typical 62% Fib (2963) to 2977.   The minor 3=1.62*minor 1 target is 3332.  The minor 4 wave 23% Fib is at 3227 and the final minor 5 push up should reach 3394.  Note: there is an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) on the 15-min chart with head at 2856, neckline at 3097/3137 (3317 average) and target of 3378.   Keep in mind that P3-C3 impulse wave that will move far beyond the 3394 high to a target area near 4552, where P3=1.62P1.  This primary (green) wave count remains valid above the P2-C3 2856 low.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that P2-C3 is still unfolding and the drop from 3994 to 2856 has only major [A]-P2-C3.   This move up is a major [B] wave that will target the 50%/62% Fib area at 3125/3190.  Within the major [B] wave, the minor A wave reached 3137, the minor B wave dropped to 2977 and now the minor C wave up is underway.   The C=0.62A target is 3151 and the C=A target is 3258.   Once the major [B] completes, the major [C] wave will drop to a new low below 2856..  The 62%/78% Fib target for the completion of major [C]-P2 is at the 2745/2577 area (50-month SMA support at 2605).  This alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the 2347 Cycle 2 low.

The very bearish alternate (red) wave count is that the Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) topped at 3394 and the move down to 2856 is the Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2).   The PB wave bounce higher is underway and should reach the typical 50%/62% Fib 3125/3190 area.  Once the PB wave up completes, the massive PC wave lower will break below 2347 and should reach the typical 50%/62% Fib target area of 2031/1703 to complete the C2 wave.  This alternate (red) count would become invalid on a break above the 3394 high.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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