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February 20th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on February 20, 2020

5:15 pm EST:   The SP-500 opened gap down from 3386, dropped to 3341 and rallied to close at 3373.

Note: NYMO and NYSE A-D cumulative both closed positive today, with the SP-500 down 13 points.  This is potentially bullish short-term and points more toward the alternate (blue) wave count.

The primary (green) wave count has the minor 5 of major [3]-P5-C1 wave topped at 3394.   The major [4] wave down to the 23%/38% Fib at 3241/3141 is underway.   The drop from 3394 to 3341 is minor A of major [4].   The rally to 3374 thus far is minor B of major [4].   The minor B 62%/78% Fibs are at 3374/3382.   Next a minor C wave drop to C=2.62*A target would take the SP500 top 3235, right near the 23% Fib at 3241 and the wave 4 of previous degree (minor 4 of major [3] at 3215).    Once the major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib at 3246/3145 completes, the major [5]-P5-C1 wave should reach levels above 3394 at levels between 3500-3600.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that the move up from 3215 to 3385 is only the minute (1) of minor 5 of major [3]-P5-C1.   The minute (2) wave pull-back played out as an expanded flat to 3357, 3394 and finally to 3341, which is just above the 38%/50% Fib at 3330/3308.   The minute waves (3), (4) and (5) or minor 5 of major [3] will extend much higher than 3394.  The minor 5=1 target is 3514.  Also, there is major [3]=1.23[1] target at 3476.   This more bullish alternate (blue) wave count will still have a major [4] pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib area of 3333/3216 before major [5]-P5-C1 reaches the 3600-3700 level.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

13 Responses to “February 20th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. MS53 said

    Does the blue count have a second nose waiting ? 52 points down from 3393 to 3341 for wave a. Wave c down 52 from 3375 lands at 3323, right at the 38 retrace for blue (2).

  2. R Swaim said

    Of 3393.52-3341.2, from 3375.37:
    38% 3355.3
    50 3349.9
    62 3342.9
    76 3335.3
    85 3330.5
    100 3322.9

  3. pugsma said

    Remember key lows are rare on a Friday.

    Look for this low to be set next week.

  4. pugsma said

    I was just looking at my 3476 to 3514 target area on the SP500.

    This SP500 target area of 3476 to 3514 is a 4% to 5% rise from here at 3340 and would equate to DJIA 30,000 and Nasdaq 10,000.

    There is little doubt that those two big round numbers will be hit during this bull P5-C1 wave.

    • rat8nine said

      spx daily – regardless of whether we have the green count or the blue count, it does seem really obvious to me too….there is no negative divergence here, and the macd on the weekly is way too high for a sustained reversal.

  5. chrys50 said

    Steve – I think you mentioned that Green wave 4 could be a triangle. Could today’s low be wave A and then wave B an explosive move next week…to close to old high of 3393?

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