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February 13th, 2020: Video Update on the SP-500

Posted by pugsma on February 13, 2020

2:00 pm EST:   The SP-500 opened gap down to hit a 3361 and then broke to a new all-time high above 3381.

The primary (green) wave count has the minor 5 of major [3]-P5-C1 wave up is underway since the 3215 minor 4 low and it has made a new all-time high of 3381 thus far.   For minor 5, minute (1) hit 3268, minute (2) dropped to 3244 and minute (3) wave ended at 3348.  Minute (4) wave completed at 3318 and the minute (5)=1.62(1) wave target is at 3404.   The initial target for the completion of minor 5 of major [3] is at 3400, where minor 5 = 0.62*minor 1.  Once the major [3] wave completes between 3381 and 3404, there should be a significant major [4] wave pull-back to the 23%/38% Fib at 3246/3145.   Finally major [5]-P5-C1 should reach levels above 3400 to between 3500-3700.

It will take a break below 3318 to confirm the major [3]-P5-C1 top and thus the major [4] wave down to the 3200 area.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

14 Responses to “February 13th, 2020: Video Update on the SP-500”

  1. R Swaim said

    Good stuff. Thank
    Since [2] was a simple zigzag, it’s probably worth a mention that once the current minute completes, the move down to [4] should be a complex and those frequently drag out time-wise.

  2. Rodney Mruk said

    I would like to say once again, “The addition of these periodic videos is outstanding.” I greatly appreciate them. Thanks.

  3. traderwill33 said

    This question is for anyone who wants to answer it and sorry if turns out to be a dumb question… Very long time trader here and off and on member with Steve since he started, I just never have studied EW that much… Question is, what sort of drop should be expected following the completion of major [5]-P5-C1? Also, is this the theoretical end of the bull market or some minor section of the bull? Is a bear market anticipated following this completion? Thanks so much to whomever helps with this… Will

    • Cabell Maddux III said

      Was also curious with the same questions. Want to hold what we’ve made for the last 10 years.

    • pugsma said

      Hi Will:

      In March of 2009, I have Super Cycle IV (SC-IV) ending on the SP500 at 667 after a decade of losses from the May 2000 SC-III top. Super Cycle V (SC-V) up began in March 2009. The SC-V wave up should last several decades into years 2040-2050 and take the SP500 to 7000-8000.

      Since March of 2009 the SP500 has been in a Cycle Degree (specifically Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V) cyclical bull market. Once major [5] of Primary 5 of Cycle 1 ( [5]-P5-C1 ) completes at my target of 3662 later this year, a Cycle 2 (C2) cyclical bear market will begin. A typical 50%/62% Fibonacci retracement would be to 2164 to 1865. A drop to 2164 would take to SP500 back to just below the December 2018 level of 2349. The C2 wave will unfold as three Primary waves PA-PB-PC and last 1 to 2 years.

      Once the C2 wave completes at say the 50% Fib of 2164, then the C3 wave up will begin. The C3 = 1.62*C1 target is 7015.

      • wac308 said

        Hi Steve
        Is this the New Long Term count you spoke of late last year?
        Awesome thanks

      • traderwill33 said

        Thank you Steve… This makes great sense and I hope it plays out exactly as you anticipate.

        I am Republican, Pro American, and Pro Business but I personally think that this economy, the Fed, and Trump in particular would greatly benefit from a humbling reset.

      • pugsma said

        So if you stay in the market during C2 and the SP500 drops from 3662 to 2162 you will lose roughly 40%.

        But is you stay in the rally during C3 to 7015 would be a 92% gain from the C1 high of 3662.

      • doubleug said

        Hi Steve,
        In your comments to the February 10 update, you mention the possibility that the C2 wave is in the books at the Dec 2018 low of 2347. Are you giving any serious weight to this possibility? That we are currently in wave C3 up? What would distinguish the counts in the short to intermediate term?

  4. kazoom1618 said

    OT: Remember TKMR and Ebola in 2014? What a flyer!

    Yesterday, INO announced their vaccine for COVID-19:

    INO weekly – bullish wedge target $10 (currently $4.30):

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