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January 15th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 15, 2020

11:30 pm EST:  The SP-500 has reached 3298 so far today, just 6 points short of the 3304 double bottom (3212/3215) target that we’ve been tracking since early last week.

The big debate is with respect to the primary (green) versus alternate (blue) wave count is whether this is the end of major [3] or only minor 3 of major [3].  The magnitude of next correction will help to sort this out.  A shallow correction of 50/75 points would be the alternate (blue) minor 4 of major [3] wave.  A deeper 100/200 points correction would be the primary (green) count major [4].

For the primary (green) wave count is wave v-(5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P5-C1 is playing to a target at 3307, where v=i.   Note that the major [3]=[1] target is 3336.  Once the major [3] wave completes there should be a significant major [4] wave correction to the 23%/38% Fib area of 3196/3105.   Finally major [5]-P5-C1 should reach the 3500 area.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that wave minor 3 of major [3]-P1 is playing out to a very typical Fibonacci extension of minor 3=1.62*minor1 at 3340.   Once minor 3 completes, there should be shallow minor 4 wave correction to the 23% Fib at 3228.  From there minor 5 of major [3], should reach the major [3] target of the 1.23 Fib extension of major [1] at 3476.  Ultimately this alternate (blue) wave count will reach into the 3700 area for the completion of major [5]-P5-C1.

The low probability alternate (red) count remains that the major [5]-P5-C1 wave is topping here at the major [4] wave triangle target range of 3253 to 3327.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

I posted this SP-500 daily chart with indicators on twitter yesterday.   There are definitely signs (divergences) of a significant top near this 3300 area.

SP500 Technical Analysis


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