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December 12th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 12, 2019

12:15 pm EST:   The SP-500 price surged to 3176 early this morning, but has since retreated to 3155.

The primary (green) count is that major [4]-P5-C1 is playing out as an expanded flat.  The move from 3154 to 3070 is minor A.  The move from 3070 to 3176 is minor B, where B=1.23*A = 3173.   Next wave should be a minor C wave towards the 3028 pivot, where C=1.62*A = 3040.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P5-C1 is continuing high towards 3200 to 3220.  A break below 3126 should invalidate this alternate (blue) wave count and confirm the primary (green) wave count.

Ultimately, no matter which short-term wave count is correct over the next week or two, the peak of this P5-C1 ending diagonal is limited and is near (within two to three months).  Tops are a process and especially cycle degree tops in particular.

House Keeping:   I will be traveling out of the country from Friday Dec 13th to Monday Dec 23rd.   I will have limited internet availability during the trip, so charts updates will be difficult.  I will make comments about the market daily until this blog post.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

12 Responses to “December 12th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. rat8nine said

    fb 15 – there are some very interesting moves in individual stocks…

  2. pugsma said

    Today’s SP-500 price action of 3160 to 3182 to 3156 to 3168 is inconclusive wrt to both very short-term wave counts. A break below 3126 is required to confirm the primary minor C of major [4] wave down to 3028 pivot area.

    However it would not surprise me (based mostly on seasonal patterns) to see the SP500 price hover above 3126 into the Christmas Holiday per the alternate (blue) count on an ongoing end of major [3] wave.

    Have a great weekend!

    • doubleug said

      Steve, awhile back (maybe late November), you had mentioned new long term charts coming out with possibly some big shake-ups to your counts. Are these coming soon?

  3. pugsma said

    Monday Dec 16th update: with the 3197 high today, the alt blue wave count is playing out to near perfection. Wave iii of minute (5) of minor C of major [5]-P5-C1 heading for at least the iii=i target of 3207.

  4. pugsma said

    Tuesday Dec 17th Update: a marginal new high at 3198 today. I still believe wave iii of minute (5) can make the iii=i target of 3207.

  5. pugsma said

    Wednesday Dec 18th Update: the past two days looks like a wave 4 consolidation with wave iii of minute (5) of minor C of major [5]-P5-C1. Thus, I’m still expecting a small push to at least 3207 to complete wave iii-(5) at the iii=i target of 3207 before a larger wave iv-(5) pullback.

    It’s really nice of the markets to remain calm and follow the 15-min chart alt blue count while I’m out of the county this week. 🙂

  6. R Swaim said

    Ever watched Gamma? https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-ultimate-smart-money-indicator-is-signalling-a-big-move-in-the-stock-market-by-the-end-of-the-week-2019-12-18?rss=1&siteid=rss

  7. rat8nine said

    spy, dia, qqq, and iwm 15 as of now, on opex Thursday:

  8. pugsma said

    Thursday Dec 19th Update: SP-500 price closed up 14 points at 3205. As expected the wave iii-(5) extended higher today toward the iii=i target of 3207. Basis wave iii ending at 3207, the wave iv 23% Fib retrace is at 3188, as seen on my 15-min chart from last Thursday, Dec 12th.

  9. pugsma said

    Friday Dec 20th: Today’s high reached 3226. This opens the possibility that the wave iv-(5) is already in place at 3191 low and this move is wave v-(5) of minor C of major [5]-P5-C1. But more likely wave iii-(5) is extending to at least the iii=1.23*i target of 3226. A 23% Fib for wave iv is at 3203.

    Have a great weekend and I’ll be back home on Monday Dec 23rd to update the SP-500 charts!!

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