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Nov 4th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on November 4, 2019

12:50 pm EST:  The primary (green) wave count P5-C1 target of 3051 has been hit and slightly exceeded.  The P5 Ending Diagonal (ED) maximum is at 3121, so that wave major [5]<[3]<[1].  Thus, the primary (green) count remains valid below 3121.

I have introduced a new alternate (blue) wave count where the P5 ED is only in the major [3] wave up now that should hit the 3100/3150 area.  Thus, there will be a major [4] down to 2900/2950 and a final major [5] up yet to come that will take the SP-500 to the 3150/3200 area into early year 2020.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

24 Responses to “Nov 4th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. MS53 said

    Steve, because of the ED, is it more likely that Major 4 will be a ZZ as opposed to a triangle ?

  2. pugsma said

    So for the alt blue the absolute minimum target for major [3]-P5-C1 is at 0.5*[1] = 3163

  3. pugsma said

    So things are getting really interesting in the small cap world (Russell-2000, IWM).

    The Russell hit 1608 today and the 52-week high from June 2019 was 1618.

    IF the Russell breaks above 1618, then the all-time high at 1742 is only 7% higher. A small cap breakout here means the alt blue count up to 3200/3330 on the SP500 is very likely.

  4. Hi Steve, I have been following your ending diagonal count and have a question about the max. allowed. For sometime now you have said that the max up for for this move was 3120. I am assuming, now that you are talking about this being just major wave 3 of this diagonal, is the reason why the max. up has been increased to 32-3300? Correct? Thanks. This would fit nicely with your 3rd year election chart.

    • pugsma said

      The primary green count P5 ED is in a major [5] wave with maximum of 3121.

      The newly introduced alternative blue count P5 ED is only in a major [3] wave with targets between 3161 and 3363. The maximum of this alternate blue can’t be calculated until major [3] completes and we see the major [4] low. However it’s likely to be above 3300.

  5. Thanks, and as always, the primary is your most preferred count.

    • pugsma said

      Not at this point. Technically the primary green count is still alive below 3121, however I strongly believe the new Alt blue is the most likely path for the SP500. It also has a much better P5 ED structure and look.

  6. pugsma said

    House Keeping: Due to very small price range today, no need to update the SP500 chart tonight.

  7. bobndusty said

    Doji cross at yesterday’s close is similar to that of mid September.

  8. pugsma said

    -DIV on the $NYMO vs SPX price for the past 10 trading days. Could forecast a significant near-term SPX correction to retest 3028 breakout area

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print

  9. pugsma said

    WOW look at the $CPC, CBOE Put/Call Ratio…warning of a potential topping area.

  10. pugsma said

    This is interesting…is it different this time?

    Clearly so far the answer is yes, equities have sprinted higher. Many investors are off-sides and defensive into this burst higher in equities.

    • pugsma said

      And just to be clear, IF 3121 is exceeded then my long standing 3051 P5-C1 target and primary Technical Analysis was in error as well. Then we’ll need to look higher at the alt blue count.

      It’s an interesting time here at 3070-3085.

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