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October 14th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 14, 2019

9:10 am EST:   As I’ve said here on this TA blog for 10 years, “the primary is the primary, until it isn’t.”   Remaining patient with the primary wave count has typically serviced us well.  But as you are aware, I won’t hesitate to make an adjustment when the price dictates a change; including going from bearish to extremely bullish is that is what price is telling us.

On Friday the primary (red) count came within 29 points (2993 vs 3022) of becoming invalid.   But at the close of Friday at 2970, the primary (red) remains valid.   This minor 2 of major [1]-PA-C2 wave nearly reached the 88% Fib at 3002 and the (c)=(a target of 2997.  If this primary (red) count is going to show its self, then a devastating minor 3 wave to a new low below 2822 should be next.  The target for minor 3 is where minor 3 = 1.62*minor at 2724.

The alternate (blue) count calling for a marginal new high above 3022 certainly looks good here with an impulsive looking wave (3) of minor C of major [5]-P5-C1 headed toward the 3061 target, where (3)=1.62(1).    Note that the Ending Diagonal P5-C1 wave target is at 3051, where P5=P1 and the maximum for the ED to remain valid is at 3121.  So this P5-C1 wave could end anywhere from 3022 to 3121.   If the 3121 ED maximum price level is breached, then we must get extremely bullish on the P5-C1 wave looking for targets above 3300 in the coming months.

The price action of the next few weeks should be very important for the intermediate to longer term wave count.

SP-500 15-min chart (as of close 10-11-19):

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart (as of close 10-11-19):

SP500 Technical Analysis


SP-500 4-hr chart (as of close 10-11-19):

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart (as of close 10-11-19):


SP500 Technical Analysis

21 Responses to “October 14th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    So over the weekend CNBC published an article documenting how investors in the past 6 months have piled more cash into the safety of money market funds than during the 2008 financial crisis.

  2. pugsma said

    NYMO is at +15 intra-day. A close above +20 is very bullish.

  3. MS53 said

    Sounds good to me 😀 / Take a look at On Balance Volume on the daily SPX chart going back to the rally leading up to 2872 blow off top. Put the OBV as an overlay on the price chart and look at the strongly significant higher highs at 2940, 2954, 3028 AND 3022. Then look at modest pullback during the 3022 to 2956 SPX drop. OBV should diverge negatively at tops. Ain’t happening yet.

  4. pugsma said

    The bubble right now is in the long bonds TLT.

  5. rox007 said

    Annoying that Wall Street Journal removed the buying on weakness and selling on strength web pages.

  6. pugsma said

    House Keeping: no need to update the SP500 charts, as Today’s move changed nothing on the two wave counts. The primary (red) is in its last gasp now as the 88% Fib was hit today at 3002. The alternate (blue) is playing out to perfection and looks to be the ST path to a new all-time high at 3051.

  7. pugsma said

    Price action since 2856 low is a perfect rising wedge.

    This mornings drop to 2988 was a third touch on the lower rising wedge trend line.

  8. MS53 said

    Trip down to 2960 area would set up a (1) (2) i, ii for the blue?

  9. rat8nine said

    spy 60 – it is possible that wave (3) ends at the .886 area, where it is marginally longer than wave (1), and that the blue count finds a way to the upper line, which roughly coincides with the spx 3050 area?

  10. pugsma said

    Intra-day NYMO above +20 extremely bullish if closes there.

    Cumulative NYSE A-D line continues a relentless march well above new highs. Bullish.

    Buy The F’ing Dip in force…

  11. kazoom1618 said

    FU to my post 3 weeks ago:

    Kazoom1618 said
    September 25, 2019 at 4:23 pm
    OT: ROKU just retraced 50% and closed the gap from August. A 50% bounce from here is +37%. Was that wave 4 finished?

    Now at +35% – time for wave ii ? Might be an IHS on 60 min chart – neckline $134ish, Is a target $170 possible?


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