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August 6th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 6, 2019

5:00 pm EST:   The SP-500 gapped up 20 points to 2864, trading down to 2847 and closed at 2881.

The primary (white/green) and alternate (blue) counts are separated by the 2729 level.   Above 2729 the primary wave count remains likely and below 2729 the alternate count takes over.  In either case, I’m looking for a large rally from low to form at a level around the 2807 pivot.

The primary (white/green) count is looking for a minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 low at the 62%/78% Fib retrace of at 2843/2795.  Late Monday there was a possible minor 2 low at 2822.   Once minor 2 completes, minor 3 of major [3] should take the SP-500 to new all-time highs above 3028.

The alternate (blue) count is lookin for a major [1]-PA-C2 low at the 2807 pivot area.  Late Monday there was a possible major [1] made at 2822.   From the major [1] low, the major [2]-PA wave should rally to at least a 50% Fib retrace at the 2941 pivot area, before major [3] drops to new lows below 2729.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

16 Responses to “August 6th, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Cobra gives four charts (four different TA reasons) that each show a 85% to 100% probability of a new low below 2822 coming in the next week.

    Assuming this Cobra TA is right, then this current one to two day rebound has the following targets:

    C=A at 2900 and C=1.62A at 2931.

    We already got 2881 today so there might only be 19 to 50 upside points left.

    • pugsma said

      The DJIA made a new low today, but the SP500 came up 4 points short at 2826 vs 2822.

      The DJIA typically leads, so will the SP500 follow Lower than 2822…and confirm the Cobra stats ?

  2. pugsma said

    Double bottom (2822 and 2826) has a target of 2940 on a break above 2881.

    Problem is the SP-500 still owes a lower low than 2822 (85% to 100% probability according to Cobra’s 4 different TA charts).

    • pugsma said

      Usually when Cobra has just one TA chart showing 85 to 100% lower low ahead its very accurate.

      This time it’s 4 charts all showing 85 to 100% Lower low ahead.

  3. pugsma said

    House Keeping: no SP-500 update for Wednesday, as today round trip 2881 to 2826 back to 2884 changed nothing.

  4. rat8nine said

    We forgot to mention that nymo, spx, and vix all closed inside their bb’s at the close yesterday. As of now, the indexes are all more or less at their respective .382 retrace areas, spy and qqq a little more, dia right there, iwm a little shy….dia made a marginal lower low yesterday, as Steve pointed out, while the others stopped around a retest area of .886 of the first bounce.

  5. chrys50 said

    Steve – based on Cobra’s view that we go lower then 2822 might be the end of wave A and now we are in wave B with wave C to follow. Wave B might return to 2925 to 2950 (.50 and .62 RT of wave A). Then wave C would go lower than 2822, possibly to 2795 which is .78 RT of minor wave 1. What are your thoughts?

    • pugsma said

      Or much lower than 2795 or even lower than 2729, if this is major [2]-P5-C1 wave and not minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 as currently labeled per the primary (white/green).

      • pugsma said

        Ultimately the major [2] wave is more long-term bullish.

      • pugsma said

        Basically my thought here is that minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 must ended where labeled at 2822.

        IF we see the SP-500 drop to a new lower, low (as Cobra thinks is 85-100% likely), then it will become a major [2]-P5-C1 wave that must hold above 2347.

  6. pugsma said

    Note the SP-500 13-day EMA at 2938 has gone below the 34-day EMA at 2948. This is Bear cross and often will be major resistance leading up additional weakness in SP-500 price.

    Also the 50-day SMA is at 2933. Another point of resistance.

    Finally there is gap resistance at 2941.

    Notice the big drop in May rebounded to this same area moving average area, failed and made a new lower, low.

  7. JW said

    Intraday NYAD is rebounding strongly — currently at a higher level than it was when SPX closed at 3003 on July 25th

  8. shf said

    Market seems to be taking a lot of cues from TLT in determining direction. Yesterday with the market drop, bond yields dropped and TLT spiked to a 52 week high $143.06. A drop in TLT today to a low of $138.62 and bond yields stabilizing saw the market recovery / uptrend. Right now in after hours TLT is rising again to bid $141 and the futures are pointing lower. Pug, any TLT count that could help determine market influence?

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