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August 1st, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 1, 2019

3:30 pm EST:  The SP-500 price opened up slightly above 2980 and ran up quickly to 3013 before dropping hard to a new near-term low at 2945.

With the very significant drop from 3028, the primary (white/green) count revision is that minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 is playing out since the 3028 high for minor 1.    The typical minor 2 wave pull-back Fibs are 38%/50%/62% at 2914/2879/2843.   To remain valid, the inor 2 of major [3] must hold above the major [2] low at 2729.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [5]-P5-C1 completed at 3028 as a 1 year long broadening top pattern (see the yellow lines on the daily and weekly charts).   Wave minor 3 ended at 3018, minor 4 ended at 2973 and minor 5 of major [5] complete at 3028.   The Cycle 2 (C2) wave is just barely underway and needs to break below 2913 and 2729 to gain momentum.  The C2 target is down below the December 2018 low of 2347 to a target near the 50% Fib retrace of Cycle (C1) at 1848.

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

13 Responses to “August 1st, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. dangd said

    We’re setting up five minutes before the close for all three items to be out of the BBs on the NYAD, VIX, $SPX chart.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print

    • pugsma said

      Two Big problems I see with this, that indicate likely near-term continued SP-500 losses:

      1) The $NYMO dropped from above +20 to below -20 in mid-day July, then failed to break back above +20 before falling to a new low today. That is the “crash condition” on the $NYMO that typically leads to several move days of SP500 losses.

      2) The SP-500 almost never bottoms on Thursday or Friday. Look for some kind of tradable SP500 low Monday or Tuesday next week.

      • dangd said

        Agreed, especially with August’s reputation. What I was eyeing is the NYMO’s “Two consecutive closes below BBs, and below -40 is likely followed by a large move up on the 3rd day” being our first good shot at a relatively tradable bottom of some degree– depending on blue or green. It looks like NYMO will fall short of the -40 today, hitting somewhere around -35. If it is below -40 tomorrow and Monday, then Tuesday would be that third day, and we might have something there.

  2. pugsma said

    Remember the “trend” on Monthly Jobs day is:

    IF open down, drift higher

    Or

    IF open up, drift lower

  3. pugsma said

    So a simple short-term bottom could form around the double top (3019 & 3028) target of 2918.

    2973 – (3028 – 2973) = 2918

  4. pugsma said

    OK for minor 2 of primary, the SP500 just hit the (c)=1.62(a) = 2914 and 38% FIb at 2914.

    But it’s unlikely the bottom will be on a Friday, Monday or Tuesday more likely.

    • pugsma said

      As I said on Friday, the 2914 low, 38% FIB was not liking the low, lows are typically set on Monday or Tuesday.

      The SP500 looks like it will open down 40 to 50 points, which is the 50% FIB at 2878 and the 2872 pivot support.

  5. pugsma said

    So if the alternative (blue) count is correct and C1 topped a 3028, the 62% FIb at 2843 and daily chart lower blue bull channel line will fail to contain this drop and ultimately the 2729 low will fail.

    I’d expect an increase in tariffs from 10% to 25% on the final $300B of China imports to follow in this alternate (blue) count. The US-Chiba trade war won’t be resolved and the US will slide into a recession during the C2 wave drop to SP500 1850.

    May you live in interesting times.,.

  6. pugsma said

    New blog for the SP-500 just posted for Monday, August 5th.

  7. LightBearer86 said

    Awesome Steve for guiding us on the waves as they unfold. At this rate, if it is really under alt count, wave A-C2 may end faster than we anticipate. I am not sure how to attach charts from WordPress, but i have been looking at major Asian markets like $HSI, $NIKK, $KOSPI, $STI, or AAXJ for that matter, most of these countries tend to lead in terms of wave counts in the past, but they have all mostly peaked in Jan’18. No amount of strength in the US markets can push them to new ATHs (in fact if not for the US markets, they would have resumed their decend, like now). They all look like in their wave C-C2 equivalent of the US mkts (although i beg to differ they are in C2), which means as usual, they might also end their bear markets ahead of the US.

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