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July 31st, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on July 31, 2019

5:40 pm EST:  SP-500 price opened flat at 3015, dropped to 2958 after the Fed meeting and then rebounded to close at 2080.

With the break below 2973, the primary (white/green) count revision is that minute (2) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 is playing out as and expanded flat, where c=1.62*a at 2956 and the 50%/62% Fib is at 2966/2953.  The minute (2)  of minor 3 wave remains valid above the minor 2 low at 2913.  The minor 3=1.23*minor 1 target is at 3203, the major [3] target is near 3200 and P5 target is near 3300.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [5]-P5-C1 completed at 3028.   Wave minor 3 ended at 3018, minor 4 ended at 2973 and minor 5 of major [5] complete at 3028.   The Cycle 2 (C2) wave is just barely underway and needs to break below 2913 to gain momentum.  The C2 target is down below the December 2018 low of 2347 to a target near the 50% Fib retrace of Cycle (C1) at 1859.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

32 Responses to “July 31st, 2019: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    FYI: There is another variant of the primary (green) wave count that I’m strongly considering her as well.

    2728 to 3028 as minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C1.

    Now a minor 2 wave to a 50%/62% Fib retrace at 2878/2842.

    In a break of 2913, this would be the new primary.

    Alt(blue) will gain momentum on a break below 2913, but really cant be fully confirmed until a break below 2728.

    • rat8nine said

      +1

      I was actually wondering about that possibility. What’s anecdotally interesting to me is that the talking heads have been heavily focused on the fed for over a month, and if anything, paying little or no attention to the trade talks, which could align with either count.

      • pugsma said

        IMHO If Trump goes for another $200B in China 🇨🇳 tariffs this summer it will likely help trigger US recession into 2020, alternate blue C1 top is in.

      • rat8nine said

        Good point. If a temporary resolution of sorts came about it could trigger the primary, and there is still enough time for the deal to fall apart a couple of months later to align with the end of P5 primary. Or, as you say, another helping of tariffs, or no deal, and it aligns with an acceleration downward for the blue count. I would add that there are trade issues brewing now between us and the EU as well. I keep going back to my concern that the faang stocks have not made new highs this month. The closest thing was googl making a new high at the end of April. The earnings pop put it at a retrace of .886, as did the earnings pop for aapl today, and fb earlier this month. amzn made a double top, and nflx made a retrace to .786. qqq made a higher high without all five, which were the leaders last year.

  2. MS53 said

    Labels for blue count max up to 3078 are still on charts, but analysis says 3028 was the top. Am going with analysis, but still want to ask if it’s possible that 2958 completed a flat for minor 4 of blue major 5.

    • pugsma said

      Drop to 2958 yesterday broke the minor 1 label at 2964 and doesn’t have the correct look for an ED. Alt blue blhas the correct look topping at 3028.
      If the SP500 re-takes 3028, then the alt blue is dead and the primary is confirmed.

  3. Esti Qaatsi said

    Hi Steve, could this be the beginning major 4 of a diagonal of some sort (ending or leading) with tgt between 2888/2828?

    • pugsma said

      No, make [4] needed at 2729

      • Esti Qaatsi said

        Sorry maybe I expressed myself uncorrectly, I was thinking at the rally from 2347 to 2954 as wave [1] and 2729 to 3028 as a wave [3] of this diagonal and now in wave [4]…

        • pugsma said

          OK now I understand what you are asking in regards to a modified Alternative (blue) showing a large P5 Ending Diagonal.

          That’s an interesting thought with major [3]-P5 ending at 3028 and now major [4]-P5 that needs to break below the major [1]-P5 high at 2954 to become a legit ending Diagonal P5, before we get a final major [5]-P5 wave up.

          • pugsma said

            What’s interesting about this proposed P5 Ending Diagonal count is that this major [4] wave would need to cause significant technical damage and produce a $NYSE A-D negative divergence during major [5].

      • rat8nine said

        That is very interesting. In an ending diagonal, wave [4] can break below wave [1] high?

        • pugsma said

          Yes a wave 4 into 1 violation is only allowed during an Ending Diagonal patten in Elliott Wave Theory. The thought is that an Ending Diagonal is a terminal pattern as market internals weaken.

      • rat8nine said

        Thanks for confirming that Steve. So it might look something like this, with Major [4] possibly hitting the purple median line around .618 rt, or not, and then making a move higher with Major [5] being shorter than Major [3].

      • rat8nine said

        It’s most interesting.

  4. kazoom1618 said

    SPX 60min:

    https://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p75535888923&a=670244706&r=1564667645615&cmd=print

    Look at the Fib retracements from 2728 to 3028 – each of 50%, 38% and 23% match a pullback perfectly!

  5. pugsma said

    OT: And here we go…Trump imposing more Tariffs. Alternate (blue) has legs…

  6. pugsma said

    With all this volatility, The primary (green) will need to become a minor 2 wave of major [3]-P5-C1 that retraces to the 50%/62% Fib at 2879 to 2849 and holds the major [2] low at 2729.

  7. pugsma said

    Remember market lows (today new low at 2953) rarely are set on a Thursday or Friday.

    Big lows are typically Monday or Tuesday on a flush.

  8. pugsma said

    OT: Just keep in mind this is no situation like the threat of tariffs on Mexico that saw Mexico cave in days and the market recovered and went higher. This is China 🇨🇳 and they are not likely to cave even if Trump goes from 10% on Sept 1st to 25% on October 1st on that final $300B in China imports.

    • rat8nine said

      That’s a great point.

    • pugsma said

      Also, all these China tariffs well be very hard for Trump to remove because he must keep them on even if a deal is eventually reached in order to enforce the deal and prevent US intellectual property theft by China. This could continue to drag the US economy towards recession.

  9. pugsma said

    I’m updating the SP-500 daily chart now and the 3028 High is right where the 1 year old broadening top patten predicted it would end. Really interesting…

  10. pugsma said

    I just added a new August 1st blog post for SP500

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