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December 20th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 20, 2018

4:25 pm EST:    The SP-500 is likely very close to key intermediate term (3 to 6 month) bottom here between the 2453 and 2401 pivots.  The 2815 to 2604 price range break-down and triangle target are at 2393.   The NYMO and SP500 both again closed below respective BB, setting up the SP-500 Buy trigger for the 2nd time this week.  The NYMO is near the extreme -100 level, which typically is where a big move up in SP500 price occurs.   The VIX also again closed above its upper BB, setting up an SPX Buy trigger.


The primary red count has been modified to show the beginning of Cycle 2 (C2) as a major [A]-[B]-[C] of Primary W (PW) wave.   The major [C]=[A] target is 2463, which was hit today.  PW wave could have ended today at 2441 or there could be one more wave minor 4 of major [C] wave up to 2540 before a final minor 5 of major [C] down to re-test 2441 to 2401.   Once the PW wave ends, there should be a significant PX wave move up to the 50%/62% Fibonacci at 2692/2752.  This PX wave move up should last several months into the early spring 2019.   For the there a bigger PY-C2 wave will drop to the 50% C1 Fibonacci retrace at 1804 into the year 2020 (see SP-500 weekly chart).

The alternate blue count remains that major [4]-P5-C1 is ending here between the 2453 to 2401 pivots, before a final major [5]-P5-C1 wave up to new all-time highs above 2491 into the 3000 to 3200 area.  This major [5] wave up should last 9 to 12 months into late 2019.

Which wave count ultimately wins, out will not be determined until the 2695 to 2759 pivot are re-test into the spring of 2019.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=17db3c1f-c6e5-4bee-98f4-c4422dd34260

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

2:45 pm EST:  Here is a quick look at the weekly chart showing the updated red and blue wave counts and why this 2453 to 2401 pivot area is likely a key bottoming area for both wave counts.   I’ll update the short-term charts before the close.

SP-500 Weekly Chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis


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