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December 12th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on December 12, 2018

7:30 pm EST:   The bullish blue count is looking for minute (1)-(2), i-ii start to the minor 1 of major [5]-P5-C1 wave.   This means the next wave should be a large more up in wave iii-(3).  The (3)-1.62(1) target is at 2768 and the minor 1 wave should reach the 2807 pivot area.  Ultimately, the major [5]-P5-C1 wave will break above the 2941 high.

For the bearish red count the minor 2 of major [3]-PA-C2 may have topped today at 2685, where (c)=0.62(a) and just below the 50% Fib retrace of 2692.   That next wave would be very bearish minor 3 of major [3] wave that will bust below the 2583 low and head for 2300.  Ultimately, the PA-C2 wave will reach the 2100 area.

Right now the blue count has a edge as there is 2-month long +DIV on the daily MACD and the NYMO.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=875de275-17a6-438a-b546-34fa5aedc825

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

15 Responses to “December 12th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    An interesting observation here, this move up from 2583 this time is not the rapid “short covering” bear market rally.

  2. pugsma said

    Weekly AAII the most bearish I can recall in a long time:

    21% Bulls and 49% Bears

    https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results

  3. pugsma said

    House Keeping: SPX small price range to leaves charts unchanged. No update required today.

  4. Apologies for the dumb question, but how should one read the implication
    (a) straight forward – therefore the market is likely turning bearish?
    (b) like a Wave 5 where people pile in, but the market is about to go the other way?

  5. MS53 said

    Interesting that 2121 low today is .62rt of 2583 to 2685.

  6. JW said

    Interesting intraday action on the 5 minute $NYAD chart — despite the SPX being down 1.0%, $NYAD has rebounded and now is actually up

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=5&yr=0&mn=0&dy=2&id=p55372818068&a=373537071

  7. pugsma said

    Under the hood, the market still looks to be attempting to build a bullish base.

    Small caps have turned around.

    Still looking like a (1) – (2) start to a move up. Obviously a move under 2583 changes that.

  8. kazoom1618 said

    QQQ 60 min – potential IHS forming:

    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=60&b=5&g=0&id=t7101196881c&a=347006700&r=1544804895680

  9. rat8nine said

    Here’s a look at iwm….a simple retest of Monday’s low at .886 = 142.06 would have occurred around the lower blue line. Price didn’t make it to the blue median line (see blue circle), and stalled around the .382 rt, setting up a potential move back to the lower line, which tends to go lower. It’s basically at a cluster of median lines, and if breaks, the 60 minute gives a clue as to a lower line area where it might find support. It is certainly at an interesting area today…

  10. hmeda said

    http://schrts.co/cgAfW6

  11. rat8nine said

    Please excuse the plethora of lines on this qqq 15 chart. From the low on november 20, price moved up to the thin blue median line at 173.31, then retraced all the way back down to 159.41, where:

    157.13 – 173.31 = .886 at 158.97

    Then, the green modified schiff median line set was added, anchored at .50 of the prior rise, as back to back sharp moves call for this set. Price then rose of the december 10 low, hit the green median line target, just shy of the .618 retrace of the move down. Note that price did not hit the bigger median line downside target (blue circle), bur the upper line of that set also met the green median line for resistance.

    Price then moved sharply down, ending today just above a key area, at the meeting of the smaller bear set median line and the green set lower line, and where:

    157.13 – 173.31 = .786 at 160.59
    159.41 – 167.60 = .886 at 160.34

    Monday will tell us if this is the trigger for a sharp move up into the fed, oe week, and the end of the year, or whether price needs to keep going and hit the confluence of line below this area.

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