Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

5:15 pm EST:    The primary (green) wave count is a major [4]-P5-C1 low at 2533, just below the typical wave [4] 38% Fibonacci retrace (2573) and right at the rising 200-day SMA (2540).    The major [5]-P5 wave up is underway as a minor 1-2-3-4-5 wave impulse.  The typical major [5]=[1] target is at 2917, which could form a bearish double top or head and shoulders pattern or the summer into the fall.    The first minor 1 wave of major [5] looks to have ended at 2672.  Wave minor 2 may have completed today at 2638 or might need some more work lower to the 50% Fib at 2603.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that the 2533 low is only the minor A of major [4]-P5-C1 wave and that this move up to a 50%/62% retrace (2703/2743) is a minor B of major [4] wave.  Wave minute (a) of minor B completed at 2672.  Minute (b) of minor B reached 2638 today or could drop to the 50% Fib at 2603.  Minute (c) of minor B should reach at least 2703 to 2742 before minor C drops below 2533 to a C=A target area of 2404.

For a clue to which wave count is correct, we can watch the reaction or the McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) has it approaches the -20 to zero area (it’s to -40 today from the -118 low last Tuesday).   An $NYMO move above the zero line is typical of a bullish impulse wave to new highs in the SP-500 (primary count).  A failure at or below the $NYMO zero line is indicative of a coming lower low for the SP-500. (alternate count).

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:  http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=1a73aac1-c491-4146-acd9-9cdb63a01919

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart: