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January 11th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 11, 2018

12:15 pm EST:   The primary (green) count has wave minute (3) of minor 5 of major [3] ending at 2759.   Wave minute (4) looks like a flat or expanded flat that could retrace down to the 23% Fib at 2698 before one final minute (5) wave push up to the (5)=(1) target at 2789 to complete major [3].  Also the major [3]=2.62[1] target is at 2807.

The alternate (blue) count is that minute (5) of minor 5 of major [3]-P5-C1 is topping near 2765, where (5)=(1).   The alternate (blue) count obviously is more near term bearish.  A break below the year end low of 2674 should confirm this alternate (blue) wave count that the major [3] top is in place and the major [4] retrace is underway.

For both the primary and alternate wave counts after the major [3] top , there will be a significant major [4] wave drop in the April-June time frame.   The 23%/38% Fibs that the SP-500 price back down towards at least the 2597 pivot, which would be a -6% correction.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

3 Responses to “January 11th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Looks like wave (4) is in place at 2736.

    Wave (5) targets are as follows to complete minor 5 of major [3]-P5-C1:

    (5) = 0.5(1) = 2782
    (5) = 0.62(1) = 2792
    (5) = (1) = 2827

    Major [3] = 2.62[1] = 2807

  2. dinh891 said

    Thanks Steve for the update

  3. MLK Holiday 2018 and beginning of Jan opex preview (as of mid afternoon on Friday, January 12th, 2018 – pre holiday)

    The persistent bull really has moved to a new level of persistence this month. There is very little to write about from a perspective of the turning points as the month of January really is only a month with historically ONE HIGH probability turning point and that is when the MLK holiday is post opex. Unfortunately for those looking for turns (tops or bottoms), the MLK holiday like in 2017 (minor top on the Friday before and a 20pt 6 day pullback) is on Opex Monday (as it was also in 2012, 2011, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2001 and 2000) and there has only been ONE MAJOR turn for the MLK holiday when it is on Opex Monday and that occurred in 2000 on the Friday before opex week.
    • Back in 2000, there was a reasonably strong rally in to the MLK holiday. The market peaked on the Friday before opex week and then fell starting towards the end of opex week till the end of January.
    • Otherwise, ALL of the January opex weeks with the MLK holiday at the start have seen minor tops or no tops at all.

    There have been a total of 8 opex Monday MLK holidays since 1998 and other than 2000’s MAJOR Top, there have been 3 rally continuations and 4 minor tops (really just speed bumps)
    This is in contrast to the MLK post opex which has seen MAJOR turns in 2016, 2015, 2014, 2010, 2009, 2008 and 1999.

    Bottom Line:
    The persistent bull has reached new levels of persistence. A top turn can occur at any time, and it is possible that the market is following the 2000 analog – but there is not a strong probability of a top occurring based on the history of the MLK holiday or even of January opex (just 5 tops all post opex since 1998. It also should be noted that there have been 5 January opex rally continuations since 1998 too!)

    For now, the bulls remain in control. There are a few historic points about that I will highlight in my next post probably late in the opex period. I certainly have never seen or traded a market like the current one that started with that pre election employment bottom in November 2016 – even visits to the 20 day MA for the SPX have become really rare (which is unusual) with just two visits since the August bottom (another WOW stat!)

    I will continue to be quiet in my posting until I can provide some potentially useful perspective.

    Have a good holiday weekend!


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