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January 5th, 2018: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 5, 2018

2:25 pm EST:  As I indicated in my comments this week, there are number of reasons why the SP-500 is still likely in a major [3] wave of P5-C1, and not the major [5] wave.   Not the least of which is the very aggressive upward price action and the extremely over bought RSI and MACD weekly indicators.  Tops are typically not an event, but rather a process.  Tops take a while to form and weekly negative divergence needs to develop on the key indicators like RSI and MACD.  Also, the $NYSE Advance-Decline line needs to form a negative divergence with respect to price.  Thus, it’s very unlikely that the market would top Cycle 1 (C1) here on a near parabolic price move up and then crash in a Cycle 2 (C2) wave.   We are likely going to see the SP-500 price consolidate gains in a major [4] wave after a wave major [3] peak, then have more more push up in a major [5] that will set-up the required weekly negative divergences.

Looking at the daily and weekly SP-500 charts, it looks like major [3] is trying to extend to the major [3]=2.62*[1] target of 2807.   It also looks like the minor 5 wave of major [5] that began at 2417 last August is trying to reach the minor 5=3 target of 2824.   Minute (3) of minor 5 looks to be ending here are around 2740 and there should then be a minute (4) 23% Fib retrace to the 2679 area before the final minute (5) push up towards 2800 to end then major [3] wave.   Once major [3] ends, I’d expect a significant pull-back both in time and price (23%/38% Fib to 2619/2647) for major [4] to develop before the final major [5] push up to the P5=P3 target of 2870.

SP-500 15-min real-time link:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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