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April 13th, 2017: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on April 13, 2017

2:40 pm EST:   SP-500 price continues to churn within the 2322 to 2401 range without definitive resolution.  Breaking below 2322 or above 2378 should resolve the listed wave count options.

The primary (white/green) wave count has a couple options: for both the 2322 low as either the end of major [4]-P5-C1 as a single Zig-Zag or the orthodox low of a still unfolding major [4] triangle wave.  If major [4] ended at 2322, then minor 1 of major [5] hit 2378, minor 2 retraced 78% to 2334 and now minor 3 of major [5] wave is underway and should bust through the upper yellow line and head for the minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 target of 2446.  Ultimately the Major [5]-P5-C1 target is at 2513, where P5=P1.   If major [4] is to play-out as a triangle then minor D of major [4] will retrace to the upper yellow line around the 2366 pivot before one more minor E wave down to about 2350 before lunching above 2401 in the major [5]-P5 wave that will likely reach the P5=P1 target of 2513.  This primary wave counts remains valid above 2322.

The alternate (blue) count has major [4]-P5-C1 headed lower toward the 2278 pivot area as a double Zig-Zag.  The first Zig-Zag minor W ended at 2322.  Then a minor X wave retraced 62% to 2378.  Now the second Zig-Zag minor Y is headed for target at 2299, where W=Y.  The first minute (a) of minor Y looks to have ended at 2337 and minute (b) wave at 2354.  There should then be final minute (c) wave down to 2299. where minor Y=W which is the 23% Fib retrace for major [4].  Note there is also a lower Y=1.62*W = 2250, which is the 38% Fib retrace for major [4] and the typical wave 4 of lesser degree of 2246.  The alternate (blue) count remains valid below 2378.

Note: since major [2]-P5-C1 as a sharp (i.e. only 2 week long) single Zig-Zag, the Elliott Wave “guideline” predicts that major [4]-P5 should be a long-winded (2+ month; it’s already been 6 weeks) triangle or double Zig-Zag wave.

House Keeping:  US Markets are closed on Friday, April 14th in observance of the Easter Holiday.  The next blog update will be on Monday, April 17th.

Have a nice Easter Holiday Weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

SP-500 weekly chart:

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