PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

October 4th, 2016: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 4, 2016

4:35 pm EST:  The SP-500 price continues to be range bound and is looking for resolution.  A break above 2175 (primary) or below 2142 (alt blue) should confirm the next large direction move.

The primary (green) wave count is that the major [4]-P5-C1 correction is playing out a contracting triangle and completed is orthodox low at the 38% Fibonacci retrace target of 2119 (2117).   Today’s low at 2044 likely completed the minor E of major [4] triangle.   With the SPX major [4]-P5 wave orthodox low of 2119 below the major [1]-P5 high of 2121, it means that the P5-C1 wave is likely playing out as an Ending Diagonal (ED) that must complete below 2321, where major [5] < [3] < [1].   The Minor A of major [5]-P5 5-wave move up should target in the 2207 to 2232 area.   Once wave minor A completes around 2207, there should be a minor B consolidation above the 2176 pivot before the final minor C of major [5] rises to the P5=0.62*P1 target at 2246.  The primary (green) count remains valid above the 2119 low.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that wave minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 is playing out as a 3-3-3 Zig-Zag to a Fibonacci retrace target of 50%/62% at 2093/2069.   Wave (w) of minor 2 completed at 2119 and wave (x) at 2180 or is in a triangle.  Wave (y) of minor is currently underway headed for (y)=(w) target of 2105 or (y)=1.62*(w) = 2059.   From a minor 2 low at 2093, the minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 target is 2342.   The major [3] target is at 1.62*[1] = 2496.  The P5=P1 target is 2514 to complete the Cycle 1 wave.  Note alternate (blue) count remains valid for minor 2 above the 1991 low and would be fully confirmed on a move above 2321, which invalidates the primary (green) ED P5-C1 count.

The alternate (red) wave count has topped major [5]-P5-C1 at 2194 and the LT (long-term) Cycle (C2) wave down towards a 50% Fibonacci retrace of C1 at 1428 is about to get underway.  It will take a break above 2194 invalidate the (red) count and below 1992 to confirm it.

SP-500 15-min chart:


SP-500 60-min chart:


SP-500 4-hr chart:


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