PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

February 2nd, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on February 2, 2016

3:00 pm EST:   The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 pivot target area.   Within PC, the major [1] wave completed at the 1812 at the 1814 pivot area.   The major [2] wave Fibonacci retrace of 62%/78% to the 2000/2049 area is underway.  Major [2] in simplest form will be a minor A-B-C Zig-Zag.  The first 5-wave minute degree move for minor A reached the 1905 pivot area (1909).   The minor B wave ended at the 38% retrace (1872) as a flat wave.  The Minor C wave is underway as another 5-wave move up to the 1991/2019/2046 pivot area to complete major [2].  There is a C=1.38A target at 2007 and C=1.62A target at 2030.  The completion of minor C of major [2] will be complete on breach of the wave minor B low of 1873.  Once major [2] completes, the major [3] wave down begins a massive sell-off toward the PC-C2 target of 1575/1401.  The primary (red) count remains valid as long as the major [2] wave remains below the PB-C2 high of 2116.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [1]-PC-C2 completed the minor 4 of major [1] wave at 1947 as a Zig-Zag just above of the 38% retrace of 1922.  Now the minor 5 wave needs to make one more low below 1812 to complete minor 5 of major [1] at the 1775 pivot.  A break below the 1873 pivot would confirm the alternate (blue) count headed below 1812.

Note the large, 2 year old, Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern that has formed on the SP-500 daily chart with Head at 2135, Neckline at 1820 and Price Target of 1820 – (2135-1820) = 1505.  The major [2]-PC bounce to 2000/2049 should form the 2nd Right Shoulder (RS2) to match LS2 at 2013 from August 2014.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 2-2-16

 

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 2-2-16

 

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 2-2-16

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Daily EOD 2-2-16

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