PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

January 29th, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 29, 2016

1:20 pm EST:  With SP-500 1922 exceeded today, the minor 4 of major [1] alternate (blue) count is eliminated.  It’s simply now a matter of where major [2]-PC-C2 wave ends (Fib retrace 38%=1928, 50%-1964, 62%=2000).  However, no matter how high major [2] retraces the SP-500 monthly chart has now confirmed the bear market cycle degree wave (Cycle 2 of Super Cycle V) for only the third time in the past 20 years (i.e. see the montly chart 13-month EMA (2014) crossed below the 20-month EMA (2028) on the month close).

The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 pivot target area.   Within PC, the major [1] wave completed at the 1812 at the 1814 pivot area.   The major [2] wave Fibonacci retrace of 38%50%/62% to the 1928/1964/2000 area is underway.  Major [2] in simplest form will be a minor A-B-C Zig-Zag.  The first 5-wave minute degree move for minor A reached the 1905 pivot area (1909).   The minor B wave ended at the 38% retrace (1872) as a flat wave.  The Minor C wave should is underway as another 5-wave move up to the 1926/1956/1991 pivot area to complete major [2].   Once major [2] completes, the major [3] wave down begins a massive sell-off toward the PC-C2 target of 1575/1401.  The primary (red) count remains valid as long as the major [2] wave remains below the PB-C2 high of 2116.

Note the large, 2 year old, Head and Shoulders Topping Pattern that has formed on the SP-500 daily chart with Head at 2135, Neckline at 1820 and Price Target of 1820 – (2135-1820) = 1505.  The major [2]-PC bounce to 1964/2000 should form the 2nd Right Shoulder (RS2) to match LS2 at 2013 from August 2014.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 1-29-16

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 1-29-16

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 1-29-16

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 1-29-16

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly 1-29-16

SP-500 monthly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 monthly EOD 1-29-16

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