PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

January 5th, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 5, 2016

4:30 pm EST:   After the big drop for 2044 to 1990 yesterday, the SP-500 put in a consolidation “inside” candle between 2004 and 2022 today.  This typically occurs before another large move the next day, which fits with either wave count.  The $NYMO also closed up from -10 to the zero, showing some strength.

The primary red count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 target area.   Within PC, the major [1] wave is underway headed for the 1884/1905 pivot area.   This first minor 1 of major [1] wave completed at the 2019 pivot.   The minor 2 of major [1] wave ended at the 88% Fib retrace of 2104.  Wave minor 3 is underway to 1910, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1.   Within minor 3, wave minute (1) ended at 1993 and wave (2) retraced 88% to 2082.   Wave (3) of minor 3 is underway and should drop below 1993, to a target of (3)=1.38(1) at 1943.  Wave i-(3) reached 2046 and now wave ii-(3) retraced 50% to 2063.  Wave iii-(3) looks to have ended at 1990, where iii=2.00*i.  Today’s move up to 2022, was a wave iv-(3) and tomorrow wave v-(3) should break below 1990.  The red count remains valid below the minor 2 high of 2104.

The blue count is that Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) has one more push up above the 2135 level coming of the Primary 4 (P4) low of 1872 from September.   The final P5 target is at either the P5=0.50*P1 at 2224 or P5=0.62*P1 at 2308.   Within P5, the major [1] completed at 2116 and now major [2] is completing as a minor W-X-Y Double Zig-Zag that should retrace 50%/62% to 1994/1965.  The blue count on the 15/60-min charts assumes the major [2] low is in place at 1990 and the minor 1 of major [3] wave is underway headed to the 2079 pivot.   The blue count remains valid as long the major [2] wave remains above the Primary 4 (P4) of 1872.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 1-5-16

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 1-5-16

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 1-5-16

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 1-5-16

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