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December 21st, 2015: SP-500 Mid-day/EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on December 21, 2015

12:00 pm EST:   On Friday, 12-18-15 the SP-500 held the 88% Fib retrace (2003) of the most recent 1993 to 2077 move higher.  With the lower low at 2005 vs 2012 from the previous Friday 12-11-15, a potential positive divergence on the McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) has set up, -33 vs -93.  Also, the VIX put in a lower high at -21 vs -25 these past two Fridays, which is another potential bullish sign for the SPX price going forward.   These types of daily chart divergence would argue for a least a 1 weak long (Santa) rally in the SPX price and maybe more (alt blue count).  Also the potential large bull flag on the charts that measures from 2116 to 1993 is still intact.  The bull flag measured move is 2116 + (2116-1993) = 2239.    As long as the 1991 pivot area holds the alternate (blue) count as labeled is still in play.

The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 target area.   Within PC, the major [1] wave is underway headed for the 1884/1905 pivot area.   This first minor 1 of major [1] wave completed at the 2019 pivot.   The minor 2 of major [1] wave ended at the 88% Fib retrace of 2104.  Wave minor 3 is underway to 1910, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1.   Within minor 3, wave minute (1) ended at 1993 and wave (2) retraced 78% to 2077.   Wave (3) of minor 3 is underway and should drop below 1993, to a target of (3)=1.23(1) at 1940.  The red count remains valid below the minute (2) of minor 3 high of 2077.

The alternate (blue) count is that Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) has one more push up above the 2135 level coming of the Primary 4 (P4) low of 1872 from September.   The final P5 target is at either the P5=0.50*P1 at 2224 or P5=0.62*P1 at 2308.   Within P5, the major [1] completed at 2116 and now major [2] completed as a minor A-B-C Zig-Zag that should retraced 50% to 1993.   Major [3] wave is underway that will reach at least the [3]=[1] level of 2237.  Within major [3], the minor  1 wave completed at 2077 and a minor 2 wave retraced 88% to 2005 thus far.  The blue count remains valid as long the minor 2 of major [3] wave remains above the major [2] low of 1993.

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SP-500 15- min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 15-min MD 12-21-15

SP-500 60-min chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 60-min MD 12-21-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 4-hr MD 12-21-15

SP-500 daily chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 daily MD 12-21-15

SP-500 daily chart with indicators (Friday 12-18-15):

PUG SP-500 Daily with Indicators 12-18-15

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