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December 14th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on December 14, 2015

3:30 pm EST:   Today the SP-500 price dipped below 1993.48 to 1993.36, eliminating the major [4]-P5-C1 alternate (blue) count.   However, the P5-C1 wave to an all-time new high is still a possibility as long as the September low of 1872 holds.   This wave down from 2116 now becomes a major [2]-P5-C1 wave per the revised alternate (blue) count.  Today’s 1993 low is a perfect 50% Fibonacci retracement of the major [1] wave up from 1872 to 2116.  The McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) is extremely oversold at around -100 today indicating a significant bottom should be near, although the $NYMO can dip as low as the -120 to -150 level allowing for one more plunge lower in the SP-500 price before the at bottom is set.

The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 target area.   The major [1]-PC wave is underway headed for the 1905/1926 pivot area.   This first minor 1 of major [1]-PC wave completed at the 2019 pivot.   The minor 2 of major [1] wave ended at the 88% Fib of 2104.  Wave minor 3 is underway and  to 1947, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1.   Within minor 3, wave (1) at 2042 and wave (2) has retraced 88% 2094.   Wave (3) of minor 3 ended today at 1993, where  (3)=1.62(1).   A wave (4) bounce to the 23%/38% area of 2016/2031 is underway.  After wave (4) completes, wave (5) should drop to 1947 to complete minor 3.  Next will be a minor 4 bounce of 23% to 1983 and then a final minor 5 wave down to the 1905/1926 pivot area to complete major [1]-PC-C2.   The red count remains valid as long as the wave (4) of minor 3 remains below 2042.

The alternate (blue) count is that Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) has one more push up above the 2135 level coming of the Primary 4 (P4) low of 1872 from September.   The final P5 target is most likely at either the P5=0.50*P1 at 2224 or P5=0.62*P1 at 2308.   Within P5, the major [1] completed at 2116 and now major [2] is underway as a minor A-B-C Zig-Zag that should retrace 50%/62% to the 1993/1965 area.   Wave minor A completed at 2019, wave minor B ended at 2104, and the minor C may have bottomed today at the 50% Fib retrace of 1993 or might need one more push down to the 62% Fib retrace of 1965 to complete major [2].   Once major [2] completes, there should be major [3] wave that will reach at least the [3]=[1] level of 2237.  The blue count remains valid as long the major [2] remains above P4 low of 1872.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 12-14-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 12-14-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 12-14-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 12-14-15

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