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November 5th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on November 5, 2015

5:15 pm EST:   So far the drop from 2116 to 2090 looks like 3-wave correction, and thus the alternate (blue) count could be ready to break to a new all-time high above 2135.  Will need to see an impulse wave headed below 2090 and breaking 2059 to begin to confirm the primary (red) count.

The primary (red) count is that Cycle 2 (C2) is playing out as a flat wave from the May 22nd Cycle 1 (C1) high at 2135 to the August 24th Primary A (PA) low of 1867 and now the Primary B (PB) wave up to re-test the C1 high of 2135.   Typically during a flat, the B wave (in this case PB) will retrace 88%/100% (2103/2135) of the A wave (in this case PA).    From the PB high at 2103 to 2135, the Primary C (PC) wave of C2 should retrace back to at least the PC=PA low 1867 and likely much lower.   The double top (2135) target for PC-C2 is at 1867 – (2135-1867) = 1599.  The Cycle 2 (C2) forecast low is at the year 2007 high 1575, which is the 38% retrace of the C1 wave.   Within the PB wave, the major [C] wave up from 1872 looks to be complete at 2116.  Wave (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-PC-C2 is underway with target of the 2079 pivot area.   Wave (3) or minor 1 should break the 2046 pivot and wave (5) of minor 1 should reach the 2019 pivot.  It will take a break below the 2059 level to begin to confirm the PB-C2 top is in place.

The alternate (blue) count is that Cycle (C2) is playing out as an expanded flat wave from the May 2nd C1 high at 2135 to a the August 24th PA low of 1867 and now the PB wave up to a slightly higher high than 2135.  Typically during an expanded flat, the B wave (in this case PB) will retrace 123% (2197) of the A wave (in this PA).   From the PB high near 2197, the PC wave of C2 should extend at least to 1.62*PA, which is 1763.  The double top (2135) target for PC-C2 is at 1867 – (2135-1867) = 1599.  The Cycle 2 (C2) forecast low is at the year 2007 high 1575, which is a 38% retrace of the C1 wave.  Within the PB wave, the major [C] wave up from 1872 looks to be still be in the minor 3 wave.   Wave (4) of minor 3 looks to have completed at 2059 and now wave (5) of minor is underway with a target of 2141, where minor 3 = minor 1.   Once minor 3 completes there should then be a minor 4 retrace of 23%/38% to 2107/2084 before minor 5 reaches the 2197 target, where minor 5 = 0.62*minor = 2200.   This alternate (blue) count remains valid above 2059/2063 as currently labeled.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 11-5-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 11-5-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 11-5-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 11-5-15

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