PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

November 4th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on November 4, 2015

4:05 pm EST:  The SP-500 was rejected at the 2120 pivot.  During the year 2015, beginning on February 25th, the 2120 pivot has killed all 6 rally attempts.  The 6 corrections at the 2120 pivot have been: 80, 69, 58, 63, 91, and 277 points.

The primary (red) count is that Cycle 2 (C2) is playing out as a flat wave from the May 22nd Cycle 1 (C1) high at 2135 to the August 24th Primary A (PA) low of 1867 and now the Primary B (PB) wave up to re-test the C1 high of 2135.   Typically during a flat, the B wave (in this case PB) will retrace 88%/100% (2103/2135) of the A wave (in this case PA).    From the PB high at 2103 to 2135, the Primary C (PC) wave of C2 should retrace back to at least the PC=PA low 1867 and likely much lower.   The double top (2135) target for PC-C2 is at 1867 – (2135-1867) = 1599.  The Cycle 2 (C2) forecast low is at the year 2007 high 1575, which is the 38% retrace of the C1 wave.   Within the PB wave, the major [C] wave up from 1872 looks to be complete at 2116.  Wave (1) of minor 1 of major [1]-PC-C2 is underway with target of the 2079 pivot area.   Wave (3) or minor 1 should break the 2046 pivot and wave (5) of minor 1 should reach the 2019 pivot.  It will take a break below the 2059 level to begin to confirm the PB-C2 top is in place.

The alternate (blue) count is that Cycle (C2) is playing out as an expanded flat wave from the May 2nd C1 high at 2135 to a the August 24th PA low of 1867 and now the PB wave up to a slightly higher high than 2135.  Typically during an expanded flat, the B wave (in this case PB) will retrace 123% (2197) of the A wave (in this PA).   From the PB high near 2197, the PC wave of C2 should extend at least to 1.62*PA, which is 1763.  The double top (2135) target for PC-C2 is at 1867 – (2135-1867) = 1599.  The Cycle 2 (C2) forecast low is at the year 2007 high 1575, which is a 38% retrace of the C1 wave.  Within the PB wave, the major [C] wave up from 1872 looks to be still be in the minor 3 wave.   Wave (4) of minor 3 looks to have completed at 2059 and now wave (5) of minor is underway with a target of 2141, where minor 3 = minor 1.   Once minor 3 completes there should then be a minor 4 retrace of 23%/38% to 2107/2084 before minor 5 reaches the 2197 target, where minor 5 = 0.62*minor = 2200.   This alternate (blue) count remains valid above 2059/2063 as currently labeled.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 11-4-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 11-4-15

SP-500 4-chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 11-4-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 11-4-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 11-4-15

 

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