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October 29th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 29, 2015

5:30 pm EST:   The Cumulative NYSE Advance-Decline Line ($NYAD) is showing a significant negative divergence (-DIV) as the SP-500 price approaches it’s May 22nd, 2015 high of 2135.  This is considerably different that the year 2011 where the $NYAD led (+DIV) the SP-500 price higher (see last chart below).

The primary (red) count is that Cycle 2 (C2) is playing out as a flat wave from the May 22nd Cycle 1 (C1) high at 2135 to the August 24th Primary A (PA) low of 1867 and now the Primary B (PB) wave up to re-test the C1 high of 2135.   Typically during a flat, the B wave (in this case PB) will retrace 88%/100% (2103/2135) of the A wave (in this case PA).    From the PB high at 2094 to 2135, the Primary C (PC) wave of C2 should retrace back to at least the PC=PA low 1867 and likely much lower.   The double top (2135) target for PC-C2 is at 1867 – (2135-1867) = 1599.  The Cycle 2 (C2) forecast low is at the year 2007 high 1575, which is the 38% retrace of the C1 wave.   Within the PB wave, the major [C] wave up from 1872 looks to be complete nearly complete here at the 2094 pivot.   Wave iv-(5) of minor 5 of major [C] looks like it could have played out as small triangle wave and now the wave v-(5) wave is headed for the (5)=(1) target of 2106.  Note the 88% retrace for PB is at 2103.  It will take a break below the 2063/2059 levels to begin to confirm the PB-C2 top is in place.

The alternate (blue) count is that Cycle (C2) is playing out as an expanded flat wave from the May 2nd C1 high at 2135 to a the August 24th PA low of 1867 and now the PB wave up to a slightly higher high than 2135.  Typically during an expanded flat, the B wave (in this case PB) will retrace 123% (2197) of the A wave (in this PA).   From the PB high near 2197, the PC wave of C2 should extend at least to 1.62*PA, which is 1763.  The double top (2135) target for PC-C2 is at 1867 – (2135-1867) = 1599.  The Cycle 2 (C2) forecast low is at the year 2007 high 1575, which is a 38% retrace of the C1 wave.  Within the PB wave, the major [C] wave up from 1872 looks to be still be in the minor 3 wave.   Wave (4) of minor 3 looks to have completed at 2059 and now wave (5) of minor is underway with a target of 2141, where minor 3 = minor 1.   There should then be a minor 4 retrace of 23% to 2107 before minor 5 reaches the 2197 target, where minor 5 = 0.62*minor = 2200.   This alternate (blue) count remains valid above 2059/2063 as currently labeled.

Have a Happy Halloween Holiday !!!  

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 10-29-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 10-29-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 10-29-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 10-29-15

Cumulative $NYAD vs SP-500 for Years 2011 to 2015:

PUG Cumulative $NYAD vs SPX 10-29-15

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