PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

October 26th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 26, 2015

6:10 pm EST:    Today marks the 6th year anniversary of this blog formation on Oct  26th, 2009.

The primary (red) count is that the PB-C2 wave is ending at the 78%/88% retrace area of 2076/2103.  If you look at the year 2000 top on the SP-500 monthly chart below, the retrace after the initial drop reached 89%.  So far the SP-500 has hit the 2079 pivot and pulled back to 2065.  Thus 2080 could be the PB-C2 top at just above the 78% retrace of 2076.  We’ll need to see break below the 2046 pivot to begin to confirm the PB-C2 top is in place.  Breaking 2017 and 1991 from an E-wave perspective would help solidify the PB-C2 top.   Once PB-C2 completes there should be multi-month to a year PC-C2 wave headed much lower to back-test the year 2007 top at 1575.

The alternate (blue) count is that PB-C2 will re-test the old 2135 high or slightly above as Cycle 2 (C2) plays out as a flat or expanded flat.  For the flat PB=PA at 2135 and for the expanded flat PB=1.23*PA at 2197.   Within major [C]-PB, wave minor 1 completed at 2022 and wave minor 2 retraced back to the 1991 pivot.  Wave minor 3 of major [C] has been underway since the 1991 minor 2 low, with wave minute (1) of minor 3 complete at 2039.  Wave (2) of minor 3 retraced about 50% to 2017 and now wave (3) of minor 3 is headed back to near the old high of 2135.  Wave (3)=2.0*(1) at 2113 and wave minor 3 = minor 1 at 2141.   A break below 2017 and then 1991 will invalidate the alternate (blue) count.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 10-26-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 10-26-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 10-26-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 10-26-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 10-26-15

SP-500 monthly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 monthly EOD 10-26-15

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