PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

October 20th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 20, 2015

6:05 pm EST:  The SP-500 price has now reached the key inflection point of the 2046 pivot.  The reaction and corresponding price action in this area will determine which wave count is correct.  A drop from the 2046 pivot and a break below the 1991 and 1956 pivots should confirm the primary (red) count.  A hold above the 1991 pivot followed by a break above the 2046 pivot should confirm the alternate (blue) count.

The primary (red) count is that PB-C2 played out as a major [A]-[B]-[C], 3-3-5 wave structure Flat wave, that should complete in the 2019 pivot to 2046 pivot resistance band.   There are a confluence of targets between the major [C]=[A]=2026, 62% retrace at 2033 and the minor 5=1=2046.  There is also the 200-day SMA (2060) and 50-week SMA (2060) that should cap this PB-C2 wave.  Once PB-C2 completes between 2033 and 2046, there should be a minor 1 of major [1]-PC-C2 wave move down to the 1956 pivot.  Major [1]-PC should target the 1814 pivot and ultimately PC-C2 will back-test the year 2007 top at 1575.

The alternate (blue) count is that PB-C2 will re-test the old 2135 high or slightly above as Cycle 2 (C2) plays out as a flat or expanded flat.  For the flat PB=PA at 2135 and for the expanded flat PB=1.23*PA at 2197.   Within major [C]-PB, wave minor 1 completed at 2022 and wave minor 2 retraced back to the 1991 pivot.  Wave minor 3 of major [C] has been underway since the 1991 minor 2 low, with wave minute (1) of minor 3 likely complete at 2039.  Wave (2) should retrace about 50%/62% to 2015/2009 before wave (3) of minor 3 heads back to near the old high of 2135.  Wave (3)=2.0*(1) at 2111 and wave minor 3 = 1 at 2141.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 10-20-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 10-20-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 10-20-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 10-20-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart EOD 10-20-15

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