PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

October 16th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 16, 2015

4:35 pm EST:   SP-500 price ended today at the 62% Fibonacci retracement target of 2033 for the PB-C2 wave.

The primary (red) count is that PB-C2 played out as a major [A]-[B]-[C], 3-3-5 wave structure Flat wave, that should complete in the 2019 pivot to 2046 pivot resistance band.   There are a confluence of targets between the major [C]=[A]=2026, 62% retrace at 2033 and the minor 5=1=2046.  There is also the 200-day SMA (2060) and 50-week SMA (2060) that should cap this PB-C2 wave.  Once PB-C2 completes between 2033 and 2046, there should be a minor 1 of major [1]-PC-C2 wave move down to the 1956 pivot.  Major [1]-PC should target the 1814 pivot and ultimately PC-C2 will back-test the year 2007 top at 1575.

The alternate (blue) count is that PB-C2 will re-test the old 2135 high or slightly above as Cycle 2 (C2) plays out as a flat or expanded flat.  For the PB there is major [C]=1.62[A] target at 2121 and the 88%/100% retrace is at 2103/2135.   Within major [C]-PB, wave minor 1 should complete by the 2046 pivot to be followed by the minor 2 wave retrace of 38%/50% to 1980/1959.  I’d expect the retracement for minor 2 to be smaller than usual here and hold above the 1953 to 1956 weekly gap.  A break below the 1953 to 1956 weekly gap would indicate the primary (red) count is likely playing out, however the alternate (blue) count would remain valid for minor 2 above 1872.

Have a wonderful weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 10-16-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 10-16-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 10-16-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 10-16-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 10-16-15

SP-500 Weekly Chart Year 2007-08 versus 2015-2016 Comparison:

PUG SP-500 Weekly Chart Years 2007-08 vs 2015-16 Comparison 10-16-15

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