September 30th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on September 30, 2015
6:00 pm EST: Today the SP-500 price rallied above the 1905 pivot resistance to reach 1920 and closed on the highs confirming a “trend-day”. This typically implies more follow-up through higher in the next day or two. There is overhead resistance at the 1926 and 1956 pivots and the falling 13-day EMA (1933) and 34-day EMA (1970).
Primary (red) count is that major [1]-PC-C2 completed at 1872 and the major [2] counter-trend rally is underway. The typical major [2] 50%/62% Fibonacci retrace is at 1947/1964 and right into the overhead resistance band. Within major [2], minor A completed at 1917 and then minor B retraced 50% to 1897. Minor C is underway with a C=A target of 1942. Note that major [2] must remain below 2021 in order for the primary count to remain valid. Once major [2] completes, there will be a very large major [3]-PC wave lower toward a target of 1649, where major [3] = 2.0*[1]. Ultimate Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) should reach the May 2000 and October 2007 highs (support) near 1555 to 1575. Notice the large Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern on the daily chart with Head at 2135, Neckline at 1844, and target of 1844 – (2135 – 1844) = 1553.
The alternate (blue) count is that the Cycle 2 (C2) wave is still in the Primary A (PA) wave and this current move down from 2021 is the final major [5]-PA-C2 wave with a target between the 1849 and 1814 pivots. For major [5], minor 1 completed at 1872 and this move up from 1872 to 1920 (so far) is the minor 2 wave that should retrace 38%/50% to 1929/1947. Note that the minor 2 can’t exceed 2021 in order keep the alternate count valid. After minor 2 completes, waves minor 3 and minor 4 might complete an Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern down to the PA low around 1849 to 1814. Once PA completes, there will be a large PB wave rally to retrace 50%/62% (1992/2026) of PA that can not exceed the Cycle 1 (C1) high of 2135. The final outcome of this alternate (blue) count is the same as the primary count, except the PB rally back to the 2046 pivot resistance into year end 2015 will delay start of the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave lower to the 1555 target by about 2 to 3 months.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):
Year 2011 to Year 2015 Weekly Candle Stick Chart Comparison:
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