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September 28th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on September 28, 2015

6:30 pm EST:  Today the SP-500 price broke down below the 1909 low confirming the wave count is headed for a new low below the August 24th/25th low of 1867.   The SPX price ended the day near the intra-day low of 1879.  At this point, the SP-500 is only 12 points from breaking the August 24th/25th lows of 1867 and weaker indices like the Russell-2000 made a new low today.   The classic Technical Analysis (TA) indicators shown on the chart below have triggered 2 of 3 SPX Buy Signals and a 3rd signal (VIX Sell, SPX Buy) is very near triggering.    A move lower than 1867 in the next day or two is likely, however a large move higher after that new low is also likely.   For that counter-trend move up, there are a couple of different wave count options, both of which are about equally probable based on the classic TA indicators.  The new alternate (blue) count does have the “right look” from an E-wave perspective, sets up some large month long potential positive divergences on many of the key daily chart indicators (RSI, MACD and $NYMO) and would allow for a much larger counter-trend rally into the end of the year 2015.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p89169506250&a=269536931&r=1436983881638&cmd=print

Primary (red) count completed minor 2 of major [1]-PC-C2 at 1953 and the wave minor 3 is headed for a new low below 1867.  Within the minor 3, wave (1) completed at 1922, wave (2) at 1935 and wave (3) of minor 3 headed for 1854, where (3) = 2.62*(1).   The minor 3 = minor 1 target is 1841.  Ultimately major [1]-PC should reach the 1814 pivot over the next 1 to 2 weeks.  After major [1]-PC completes near the 1814 pivot, there should be a counter-trend major [2]-PC wave rally to between a 50%/62% retrace (1918/1944) of major [1], that can not exceed the PB high of 2021.

The alternate (blue) count is that the Cycle 2 (C2) wave is still in the Primary A (PA) wave and this current move down from 2021 is the final major [5]-PA-C2 wave with a target just above the 1849 pivot.  For major [5], minor 4 complete at 1953 and this move down for 1953 is the minor 5 leg.  Within minor 5, minute (5)=(1) at 1958, so the PA low should be very soon, like tomorrow.   Once PA completes, there will be an even larger PB wave rally to retrace 50%/62% (1997/2030) of PA that can not exceed the Cycle 1 (C1) high of 2135.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 9-28-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 9-28-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 9-28-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 9-28-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 9-28-15

 

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