PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

August 26th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on August 26, 2015

7:15 pm EST:  Today’s the SP-500 price low of 1880 held yesterday’s successful re-test of the 1867 low and then rallied to close near the day’s high at 1940.   The SPX, VIX and $NYMO all close back inside their respective BB’s and confirmed step 2 of the SPX Buy Trifecta (see chart below).   The PA-C2 (primary) or P4-C1 (alternate) low appears to be in place yesterday on the 2nd move to re-test Monday’s 1867 low.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p89169506250&a=269536931&r=1436983881638&cmd=print

The primary (white/green) count found the Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2) low at 1867.  There should now be a strong Primary B (PB) wave bounce to the 62%/78% retrace target of 2033/2076 into late summer/early fall followed by a much bigger drop for the PC-C2 wave that should reach the 1575 pivot area (i.e. the year 2007 old ATH) in mid-year 2016.  The details for the PB wave are shown on the 15-min and 60-min charts.  I’m looking for the major [A]-PB wave to reach the 1966-1977 gap fill and then a 50% retrace for major [B]-PB wave to the 1926 pivot area followed by a major [C]-PB wave up to the 2046 pivot.  The primary count remains valid for the PB-C2 wave below the ATH of 2135.

The alternate (blue) count has found the Primary 4 (P4) of Cycle 1 (C1) bottom at 1867 and is now in the very early stages of the Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) wave that will make a new high above 2135 (initial P5-C1 targets are in the 2200-2300 area).   I’m looking for wave minor 1 of major [1]-P5 to reach the 1966-1971 gap fill before a minor 2 wave 50% retrace to the 1926 pivot area.  Minor 3 should then reach the 1.62 extension of minor 1 at the 2094 pivot area.  Ultimately major [1]-P5 should reach the 2135 high.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 8-26-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 8-26-15

SP-50 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 8-26-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Daily EOD 8-26-15

SP-500 weekly chat (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Weekly EOD 8-26-15

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