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August 25th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on August 25, 2015

5:50 pm EST:   The SP-500 rallied back to re-test the 1956 pivot today and the close on the 1867 low.   We are looking for key market bottom here very soon and then a strong rally.   The nature and strength of that rally will determine which wave count is correct.  For now the primary count that called the Cycle 1 (C1) bull market top in May 2015 and Cycle 2 (C2) bear market going to the year 2016 is favored by a 60%/40% probability.

The primary (white/green) count is looking for Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2) low in the 1849 to 1814 pivot area in the coming day(s) (note: the 88% retrace of the P5-C1 ending diagonal wave is at 1858).  Yesterday’s low at 1867 looks like the end of major [3] of PA, just below the major [3]=2.62[1] target of 1886.  The strong move up yesterday from 1867 to 1954, then down to 1880 and back to 1948 today was likely a major [4] wave flat that ended near the major [3] wave 38% retrace area of 1968.  Assuming the major [4] ended at 1948 today, the major [5]=[1] target is 1858 to complete the PA-C2 wave.  There are also lower potential targets are [5]=1.23[1]=1836 and [5]=1.62[1]=1801 and pivot support at 1849 and 1814.   After PA completes around 1857, there should be a strong PB wave bounce to the 62%/78% retrace target of 2029/2074 in the late summer/early fall followed by a much bigger drop for the PC-C2 wave that should reach the 1575 pivot area (i.e. the year 2007 old ATH) in mid-year 2016.  The primary count remains valid for the PB-C2 wave below the ATH of 2135.

The alternate (blue) count has the May 2015 SP-500 ATH high of 2135 labeled at the end of the Primary 3 (P3) of Cycle 1 (C1) wave.  Thus the C1 bull cycle wave is still on gong and will ultimately make a new All-Time High (ATH) above 2315 in a Primary 5 (P5) of C1 wave going into the years 2016/2107 (P5 targets are shown on the daily/weekly charts at 2215, 2299 and 2567).   This correction occurring now is a Primary 4 (P4) of C1 wave.  It has either bottomed today at 1867 or will need a slightly lower low at 1857.  The alternate (blue) count can theoretically remain valid all the way down to the P1-C1 high of 1371 (from April 2011).  However, realistically the P4-C1 wave should hold the October 2014 low of 1820, which was the major [4]-P3-C1 wave low.   A typical wave 4, 23% retrace for P4-C1 is at 1891, which was exceeded slightly today at 1867.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 8-25-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 8-25-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 8-25-15

 

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 8-25-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart EOD 8-25-15

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