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June 15th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on June 15, 2015

5:20 pm EST:   The SP-500 has triggered a sell signal on the daily chart with the 13-day EMA (2098) now below the 34-day EMA (2102) and below the 50-day SMA (2104).

The primary count is that major [1]-PA-C2 completed at 2072.  Wave major [2] completed at 2115, which was the  62%/78% retrace area.   The move up to 2115 for major [2] was a perfect back-test and “kiss goodbye” of the broken lower, yellow trend line of the primary count P5-C1 Ending Diagonal pattern.   Wave minor 1 of major [3] completed today at 2072.   Minor 2  of major [3] is either complete at 2088 (38% retrace) or will test the 50%/62% retrace area of 2094/2099 over the next day or two.  Once minor 2 completes, the heart of the minor 3 of major [3] wave down will be underway that should break below 2000.  If minor 2 reaches the 50% retrace target of 2094, the minor 3 target is at 2.62*minor = 1981.   The major [3] target is at [3]=2.62*[1] = 1950 target.  Ultimately PA-C2 should test the 1926 pivot to 1884 pivot area, which is a 62%/78% retrace of the P5-C1 ending diagonal.  The primary count remains valid for minor 2 of major [3] below the 2115 high.

The alternate (blue) count is that major [4]-P5-C1 completed at 2072 as a simple minor A-B-C.  Wave minor A of major [5] completed at 2115.   Wave minor B  retraced nearly all of minor A back down to 2072.   Minor C should be underway and will complete major [5]-P5-C1 of Ending Diagonal near the P5=0.5*P1 = 2172 target.   Not that there is minor C = 1.62*A target at 2142.  Basis the major [4] low of 2072, the ED maximum is 2074 + 154 = 2226 (as for an ED wave [5] < [3] < [1]).  The alternate (blue) count would go invalid on a move below 2072.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 6-15-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 6-15-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 6-15-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 6-15-15

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