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May 13th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on May 13, 2015

5:05 pm EST:  No change after today’s small price range on the SP-500.  Both wave counts are nearly equally weighted in probability with the slight edge to the primary count.

The primary count is that the move up from 2046 to 2126 was minor A of major [5]-P5-C1 and the move down to 2068 was minor B of major [5]-P5-C1.   Thus, minor C up is underway with a target of 2148 where C=A or 2166 where C=1.23*A to complete major [5]-P5-C1.   Within in minor C, wave (1) completed at 2118, wave (2) at 2086 and now wave (3) is underway headed for a target of (3)=1.62(1) = 2167.   There is also the P5 = 0.5*P1 target at 2172.   Note that the Primary 5 (P5) ED maximum is 2185=(2046 + (2120-1981)), as the requirement for an ED wave is [5] < [3] < [1].   The primary count remains valid above the major [4] low of 2046.

The alternate (red) count is that P5-C1 topped at 2126 and the Cycle 2 (C2) wave down is underway.  Wave minor 1 of major [1]-PA-C2 completed at 2078 and wave minor 2 was running flat ending at 2118, just below the 88% retrace of 2120.  Wave minor 3 should is underway headed for a target of 2040, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. Within minor 3, wave (1) completed at 2086, wave (2) at 2110, and now wave (3) is headed for 2058, where (3)=1.62*(1).  Minor [1]-PA should reach the 2019 pivot.  The alternate (red) count is valid below the 2126 level.

Once the Cycle (C1) top is confirmed on a break below 2040/2046, the Cycle 2 (C2) wave is likely headed for the 50% Fibonacci retrace area of 1419 over the next year.  The first Primary A (PA ) wave of C2 is likely to reach the 1814 pivot area (-15% correction) by the fall of 2015.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart 5-13-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart 5-13-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart 5-13-15

 

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