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May 1st, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on May 1, 2015

4:45 pm EST:   The SP-500 price (2108 at the close today) continues to be contained within the P5-C1 large ending diagonal (ED) since the October 2014 low at 1812.   Until 2040 (alt red) or 2185 (alt blue) is breached, the primary count continues to show the SP-500 creeping higher toward the 2172 target over the next month of two.

The primary (green) count is that major [4]-P5-C1 ended at 2046 and the final push for major [5]-P5-C1 is underway.  Within major [5], wave minor A completed at 2108 and minor B traced out an expanded flat down to 2072.  From the minor B low of 2072, the minor C wave up has been underway with a target C=1.62*A=2172 (Note P5 = 0.5*P1 = 2172).  Within minor C, wave (1) completed at 2126, wave (2) completed at the 88% retrace target of 2078 and now wave (3) should target the 1.62*(1) extension at 2165.  Note that the Primary 5 (P5) ED maximum is 2185=(2046 + (2120-1981)), as the requirement for an ED wave is [5] < [3] < [1].  Above 2185, the very bullish alternate (blue) count becomes the primary count.

The very bullish alternate (blue) count variant of the primary count is major [3]-P5-C1 is unfolding with a target at [3]=1.62[1] = 2401 and P5=P1 = 2524.  Within major [3], we have minor 1 at 2120, minor 2 at 2046 and now minor 3 is underway with a target of 1.62*minor 1 = 2271.  Within minor 3, we have minute (1) at 2126, minute (2) at 2078 and now minute (3) underway with a target of 1.62*(1) = 2208.   Thus, the alternate (blue) count is in a very bullish configuration of a wave (3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 meaning the SP-500 would grind higher with only small retracements the next 6 months.

The very bearish alternate (red) count variant is that P5-C1 topped at 2126.

On a break below 2040/2046 we will have a confirmed Cycle 1 (C1) top.   Once we found the C1 top, the Cycle 2 (C2) wave is likely headed for the 50% Fibonacci retrace area of 1419 over the next year.  The first Primary A (PA ) wave of C2 is likely to reach the 1814 pivot area (-15% correction).

Carpe Diem !   Have an awesome weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 5-1-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 5-1-15

SP-5000 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 5-1-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 5-1-15

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