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March 18th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on March 18, 2015

4:40 pm EST:   The primary count is that major [4]-P5-C1 of a large P5 Ending Diagonal (ED) completed at 2040.  The major [5]-P5 wave up is underway and must complete with major [5] < [3], which is 139 points above the major [4] low or 2040 + 139 = 2179.  The P5 = 0.5*P1 target is at 2172.  Wave major [5] of the ED should be 3-wave, minor A-B-C move up to 2172.  Wave minor A is underway and should reach 2120 pivot area.  Wave (1) of minor A completed at 2066, wave (2) retraced nearly 100% of (1) down to 2041 and wave (3) is well underway should reach the wave (3)=2.62*(1) target of 2109 before a small 23% pull-back to 2093 for wave (4).  From a wave (4) low at 2093, the wave (5)=(1) target to complete minor A is 2119.   Note: there is a potential IHS forming with head at 2040, neckline at 2083 and target of 2126, which would be the minor A of major [5]-P5-C1 high.  It is also possible (see red count labels) that the move up from the major [4] low of 2040 to 2081 was all of minor A and the move down to 2061 was minor B.  Thus, this move up to 2120 to 2126 will be all of minor C and complete major [5]-P5-C1 in the next few days to week.   In either case, Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V of the 6+ year, cyclical bull market is likely coming to end in the next month or two.   Note: The Cycle 1 top would be likely on a break below 2040 and confirmed on a break of the 1981 low.

The alternate (blue) is that wave (2) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 completed at 2040.   Wave (3) of minor 3 is underway with a target of 2265, where (3) = 1.62*(1).   The wave minor 3 target is 2298, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 and major [3] target if 2393, where major [3] = 1.62*[1].  This alternate (blue) count is considerably more bullish than the primary count and would mean that the SP-500 could reach the P5 = P1 target of 2524 over the next year.  Like the primary wave count, the alternate (blue) count remains valid above the minor 2 low of 1981.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 3-18-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 3-18-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 3-18-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 3-18-15

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