March 11th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on March 11, 2015
4:50 pm EST: The McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) closed back inside its lower BB today at -45 vs -55 and confirmed the $NYMO based SP-500 Buy Signal. The SP-500 price closed below its lower BB for a 2nd consecutive day, setting up another potential SP-500 Buy Signal on a close tomorrow back inside its lower BB. See the chart below for details.
The primary count is that major [4]-P5-C1 of a large P5 Ending Diagonal (ED) is nearing its end at the 50%/62% Fibonacci retrace area of 2051 to 2034. The primary count of the ED remains valid with major [4] above the major [2] low of 1981. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]-P5 wave must complete with major [5] < [3], which is 139 points above the major [4] low. If major [4] completed today at 2040, then the maximum for major [5] is 2044 + 139 = 2179 and if major [4] drops to the 62% retrace then the maximum for major [5] is at 2034 + 139 = 2173. The P5 = 0.5*P1 target is at 2172. Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V of the 6+ year, cyclical bull market is likely coming to end in the next month or two. Note: The Cycle 1 top would be confirmed on a break of the 1981 low.
The alternate (blue) remains unchanged in that this correction is wave (2) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 that will target the 50%/62% Fib retrace area of 2051/2034. Like the primary wave count, the alternate (blue) count remains valid above the minor 2 low of 1981. This alternate (blue) count is considerably more bullish than the primary count and would mean that the SP-500 could reach the P5 = P1 target of 2524 over the next year.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
You must be logged in to post a comment.