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March 10th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on March 10, 2015

5:10 pm EST:  Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V of the 6+ year, cyclical bull market is coming to end in the next month or two.

The primary count is that major [4]-P5-C1 of a large P5 Ending Diagonal (ED) is nearing its end at the 50%/62% Fibonacci retrace area of 2051  to 2034.   The primary count of the ED remains valid with major [4] above the major [2] low of 1981.   Once major [4] completes, the major [5]-P5 wave must complete with major [5] < [3], which is 139 points above the major [4] low.   If major [4] completed today at 2044, then the maximum for major [5] is 2044 + 139 = 2183 and if major [4] drops to the 62% retrace then the maximum  for major [5] is at 2034 + 139 = 2173.   The P5 = 0.5*P1 target is at 2172.

The alternate (blue) remains unchanged in that this correction is wave (2) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 that will target the 50%/62% Fib retrace area of 2051/2034.  Like the primary wave count, the alternate (blue) count remains valid above the minor 2 low of 1981.  This alternate (blue) count is considerably more bullish than the primary count and would mean that the SP-500 could reach the P5 = P1 target of 2524 over the next year.

Note: The P5-C1 top will be confirmed on a break of the 1981 low.

SP-500 15-min chart real-time link:

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 3-10-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 3-10-15

3:15 pm EST:  Here is a look at the updated big picture SP-500 4-hr, daily and weekly charts.  It looks like P5-C1 is playing out as an Ending Diagonal (ED) pattern fro the 1820 P4-C1 low.  The P5 wave has that has just one more push up in wave major [5] above 2120 to about 2172, which should complete the Cycle 1 (C1) bull market top that began from the SC-IV 667 low of March 2009.

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 3-10-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 3-10-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weeklyEOD 3-10-15

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