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January 28th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 28, 2015

5:15 pm EST:   Today’s sell-off to SPX 2001 after an opening pop to 2042 has begin to confirm what I’ve been discussing in the comments section the past two days:  The alternate (blue) count looks like the most likely path for the SP-500 in the near term.   Officially the primary count is still valid above the 1988.12 low, however it’s probability of playing out has decreased significantly with the break of the 2019 pivot area.  And as per my policy I don’t remove or replace a SPX wave count until it’s been invalidated, so the primary count lives on the charts for now.

The primary count is that minute (2) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 is playing out as a deep 88% retrace to 1997.  Once wave (2) of minor 3 completes above 1988.12, wave (3) of minor 3 of major [3] should explode higher and make new highs above 2094.  Obviously with the SPX price sitting at 2002 at the close today, this primary count is on very thin margin the next day or two and needs to make a sustained move above 2065 for confirmation.

The alternate (blue), and more likely, wave count is that minor C of major [2]-P5-C1 has been underway since the minor B high of 2065.  There are several wave minor C Fibonacci based targets to look for the major [2] low.   We have C=A = 1962, C=1.23*A=1939 and C=1.62*A=1899.   There are also the typical 50%/62% retrace targets are at 1950/1918.    Wave minor C is in a wave iii-(3) wave move lower and should keep sub-dividing as the 1991 and 1968 pivots are breached over the next few days to week.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15min chart EOD 1-28-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60min chart EOD 1-28-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 1-28-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 1-28-15

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