January 12th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on January 12, 2015
5:10 pm EST: Today went just as expected and forecast with the SP-500 price moving down into the 2020’s. Now the SP-500 must make a decision from here with the implications being a large move in either direction is due soon. Although tonight I’m introducing the potential for a new alternate wave count with a more muted move lower, should the SP-500 price break 1992 and invalidate the primary wave count.
The primary count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 completed at 2064. The wave (2) of minor 3 correction is well underway and is complete or nearly complete today at 2023 which is just above the typical 62% retrace target of 2019. Once wave (2) of minor 3 is complete, wave (3) of minor 3 should launch higher and reach 2140, where (3)=1.62*(1). Minor 3 should reach 2188, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 and major [3] should reach at least the [3]=[1] target of 2232. Ultimately I’m expecting P5 to reach at least the P5 = 0.62*P1 target of 2254 my mid-year and higher targets like P5=P1 at 2524 are possible. The primary count remains valid above 1992.44 and break above 2064.43 will confirm the primary wave count.
The new alternate (blue) count is that P4-C1 could play out as a large triangle with the move down to 1820 as major [A], the move up to 2094 as major [B] and now a major [C] wave underway with a target of 1962, where C=A. For major [C], the move down from 2094 to 1992 was minor A, the move up to 2064 was minor B and now minor C is underway headed for at least 1962. From 2064, it looks like we could have a wave (1), (2), i-ii start to minor C. This would mean that wave iii-(3) is underway with a target of 1985, where (3)=1.62*(1). A break above 2064.43 would invalidate this alternate (blue) count.
The alternate (red) count remains the P4-C1 expanded flat with a typical major [C] = 1.62*[A] target of 1772. The first move down from the major [B] high of 2094 to 1992 was minor 1 of major [C]. The move up from 1992 to 2064 was minor 2 of major [C]. Wave minor 3 looks to be just getting underway with a target much lower at 1797, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1. A break above 2064.43 would invalidate this alternate (red) count.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
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