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January 9th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 9, 2015

5:45 pm EST:  Today’s weakness in the SP-500 price was not expected and puts the primary count in jeopardy with the broad-based selling placing the $NYMO near the critical zero line just above the zero to -20 “crash zone”.   In a new minor 3 up-trend this type of broad-based weakness ($NYMO drop below the zero line) typical does not occur in the first few days since the proposed minor 2 low.  The $NYMO will need to monitored closely during Monday trading and a close below the zero line would set the SP-500 price up for the potential of a significant drop (i.e. see the alternate (blue) count).

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYAD&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p88512801943&a=269536931&r=1410958141020&cmd=print

The primary count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 completed at 2064.   Wave (2) of minor 3 got underway today, with the first move down from 2064 to 2038 as wave a-(2), the bounce to 2053 as b-(2) and now a wave c-(2) should be on tap for early Monday with a c=a target of 2027 which is the 50% retrace point.  Once wave (2) of minor 3 is complete wave (3) of minor 3 should reach 2154, where (3)=1.62*(1).   Minor 3 should reach 2188, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 and major [3] should reach at least the [3]=[1] target of 2232.  Ultimately I’m expecting P5 to reach at least the P5 = 0.62*P1 target of 2254 my mid-year and higher targets like P5=P1 at 2524 are possible.  The primary count remains valid above 1992.44 and break above 2064.43 will confirm the primary wave count.

The alternate (blue) count is minor 2 of  major [C]-P4-C1 completed 2064 today.  Wave minor 3 looks to be just getting underway with a target much lower at 1797, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1.   Thus this alternate (blue) count indicates the potential that the SP-500 is set-up for severe corrective wave lower (-13% drop from today’s close).  The $NYMO weakness today indicates that this alternate (blue) should be given serious consideration now and the $NYMO must be monitored closely early next week.   For the entire P4 expanded flat, the typical major [C]=1.62*[A] target is at 1772.  A break above 2064.43 would invalidate this alternate (blue) count.

Have a good weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 1-9-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 1-9-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 1-9-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 1-9-15

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