January 9th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on January 9, 2015
5:45 pm EST: Today’s weakness in the SP-500 price was not expected and puts the primary count in jeopardy with the broad-based selling placing the $NYMO near the critical zero line just above the zero to -20 “crash zone”. In a new minor 3 up-trend this type of broad-based weakness ($NYMO drop below the zero line) typical does not occur in the first few days since the proposed minor 2 low. The $NYMO will need to monitored closely during Monday trading and a close below the zero line would set the SP-500 price up for the potential of a significant drop (i.e. see the alternate (blue) count).
The primary count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 completed at 2064. Wave (2) of minor 3 got underway today, with the first move down from 2064 to 2038 as wave a-(2), the bounce to 2053 as b-(2) and now a wave c-(2) should be on tap for early Monday with a c=a target of 2027 which is the 50% retrace point. Once wave (2) of minor 3 is complete wave (3) of minor 3 should reach 2154, where (3)=1.62*(1). Minor 3 should reach 2188, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 and major [3] should reach at least the [3]=[1] target of 2232. Ultimately I’m expecting P5 to reach at least the P5 = 0.62*P1 target of 2254 my mid-year and higher targets like P5=P1 at 2524 are possible. The primary count remains valid above 1992.44 and break above 2064.43 will confirm the primary wave count.
The alternate (blue) count is minor 2 of major [C]-P4-C1 completed 2064 today. Wave minor 3 looks to be just getting underway with a target much lower at 1797, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1. Thus this alternate (blue) count indicates the potential that the SP-500 is set-up for severe corrective wave lower (-13% drop from today’s close). The $NYMO weakness today indicates that this alternate (blue) should be given serious consideration now and the $NYMO must be monitored closely early next week. For the entire P4 expanded flat, the typical major [C]=1.62*[A] target is at 1772. A break above 2064.43 would invalidate this alternate (blue) count.
Have a good weekend !
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
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