January 5th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on January 5, 2015
5:30 pm EST: With today’s large price drop to the 2019 pivot area, the SP-500 is at an important inflection point. A large move in either direction is likely from this 2019 pivot area. If price can hold above 1972 and the primary count will likely play out for a continued P5-C1 move up above 2200 into mid-year. Break below 1972 and the alternate (blue) will likely play out with P4-C1 headed below 1820 into mid-winter.
The primary count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P5-C1 is complete or nearly complete at today low of 2017, which is the typical wave 2 retrace of 62%. The minute (c)=(a) target is 2014. There are lower retrace targets at 78%/88% (2000/1988), which are still possible. As long as wave minor 2 holds above 1972.56, then the primary count remains valid. Once minor 2 is complete, minor 3 should move above 2200. Assuming minor 2 is complete at 2017, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is 2213. Ultimately I’m expecting P5 to reach at least the P5 = 0.62*P1 target of 2254 my mid-year and higher targets like P5=P1 at 2524 are possible.
The new alternate (blue) count is that major [C]-P4-C1 is underway since the major [B] top at 2094. In this scenario P4-C1 is playing as a wave 3-3-5 expanded flat since the P3-C1 high at 2019 in mid-September 2014. The 3-wave move down from 2019 to 1820 was major [A]-P4, the 3-wave move up from 1820 to 2094 was major [B]-P4 and now the SP-500 is in the very beginning stages of a 5-wave major [C]-P4. The typical major [C]=1.62*[1] target is at 1772. For this first move down from 2094, the SP-500 is currently in a wave (3) of minor 1 of major [C] that should reach 1984, where (3)=1.62*(1). There should then be a wave (4) retrace of 23% to 2002, before wave (5)=(1) heads for 1954 to complete minor 1 of major [C]. A break above 2094 would invalidate this alternate (blue) count.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
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