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December 8th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on December 8, 2014

5:55 pm EST:   For the primary wave count the major [1]-P5-C1 wave looks to have ended at 2079 on Friday Dec 5ht and this first move down is wave minor A of major [2]-P5-C1.   Minor A should reach the 203-2034 support area before a minor B bounce of a 50% retrace to 2055.  From the minor B high of 2055, the minor C=1.62*A target is 1975.  For major [2] the 38%/50% Fibonacci retracement target is at 1980/1949, so there is some confluence around 1949 to 1980 for major [2].  Once the major [2] completes there will be 3 more major degree waves up to the P5-C1 high over the next 6 to 9 months to the minimum target of P5=0.62*P1 = 2254 and the target could be as high as P5=P1 at 2524.

For the alternate (blue) wave count major [3]-P5-C1 ended at 2076 back on November 28th.  The first move down from 2076 to 2050 was minor A of major [4].  The move up to 2079 was major [B] and now the move down from 2079 to 2054 thus far is minor C of major [4].   If major [4] plays out as a flat where C=A=2053, then major [4] may have completed today at 2054.  Should major [4] turn in to an expanded flat the C=1.62*A target is 2036.  The 23% Fibonacci retracement target for major [4] is at 2042 and the wave 4 of previous degree target area is 2030-2034, so the is a confluence of targets in the 2030 to 2042 area for the completion of major [4]-P5-C1.  Once major [4] completes, major [5]-P5-C1 should move higher towards the  minimum target of P5=0.5*P1 = 2172 over the next month or two.

As I have been saying for several weeks now, the depth of this correction [1980/1949 (primary) or 2042/2019 (alternate)] should determine which wave count is the correct one.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 12-8-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 12-8-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 12-8-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 12-8-14

 

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