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September 30th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on September 30, 2014

7:25 pm EST:   The SP-500 back-tested its falling 34-day EMA (1985) and closed below its 50-day SMA (1977).  The VIX closed above its upper BB again.

For the primary wave count the SP-500 looks to have completed a weak bear flag, minor 2 wave at 1985 (38% fib retrace).  The bearish primary count is looking for a minor 3 of major [A]-P4-C1 wave headed lower to the 1926 pivot over the next few days.   Major [A]-P4-C1 should reach the 1905 area before a major [B] wave bounce.  Ultimately P4-C1 should reach the 23% fib retrace of P3-C1 at 1802.

The bullish alternate (blue) count is looking for a wave (3) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 up towards the 2072 level, where (3)=(1).  Ultimately major [5]-P3-C1 should reach the major [5]=[1]=2085 area going into the end of 2014.

As currently labeled the primary count goes invalid on a move above 1985 and alternate (blue) count goes invalid below 1964.  However the actual E-wave invalidation threshold are up at 2019 (primary) and down at 1905 (alternate).

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 9-30-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 9-30-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 9-30-14

 

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