September 30th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on September 30, 2014
7:25 pm EST: The SP-500 back-tested its falling 34-day EMA (1985) and closed below its 50-day SMA (1977). The VIX closed above its upper BB again.
For the primary wave count the SP-500 looks to have completed a weak bear flag, minor 2 wave at 1985 (38% fib retrace). The bearish primary count is looking for a minor 3 of major [A]-P4-C1 wave headed lower to the 1926 pivot over the next few days. Major [A]-P4-C1 should reach the 1905 area before a major [B] wave bounce. Ultimately P4-C1 should reach the 23% fib retrace of P3-C1 at 1802.
The bullish alternate (blue) count is looking for a wave (3) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 up towards the 2072 level, where (3)=(1). Ultimately major [5]-P3-C1 should reach the major [5]=[1]=2085 area going into the end of 2014.
As currently labeled the primary count goes invalid on a move above 1985 and alternate (blue) count goes invalid below 1964. However the actual E-wave invalidation threshold are up at 2019 (primary) and down at 1905 (alternate).
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
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